SEA → SMF Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · SEANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Seattle airport profile →

Destination · SMFNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Sacramento airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

78/ 100Strong

Better than 82% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 13,124 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

79.9%

10,442 of 13,061

Cancellation rate

0.40%

52 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-3 min

Average 4.3 min

Severe delays

4.4%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

48 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

13,124

4 carriers

SEA → SMF arrives on time 79.9% of the time; the return trip, SMF → SEA, arrives on time 82.7% of the time, a 2.7-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

SEA → SMF spends 27.2 minutes on the ground on a 605-mile trip: 21.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SEA and 5.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at SMF.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route holds up about the same all year, a steadier seasonal pattern than 95% of 3,357 comparable routes.

84.7% on time in its best month (April) against 75.1% in its worst (July).

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.

Why SEA → SMF flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

SEA → SMF cancelled 52 of 13,124 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 252. The reason filed most often was the airline, 69.2% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 365 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Airline69.2%

Weather25.0%

Air traffic5.8%

Security0.0%

Of 52 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

The airline1 in 365

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

36 cancellations, 69.2% of the total.

Extreme weather1 in 1,010

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

13 cancellations, 25.0% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 4,375

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

3 cancellations, 5.8% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

52 coded cancellations were recorded on SEA → SMF; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

32 min late

against a median of 3 min early

Arrived an hour or more late4.4%

Typical delay when late48 min

Cancelled0.40%

Landed somewhere else0.08%

Percentiles over 13,124 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at SMF after arriving from SEA.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, SEA → SMF arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	41%	Likely to miss
45 min	19%	High risk
60 min	11%	Some risk
90 min	4.3%	Low risk
120 min	2.3%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.40% of the time and diverts 0.08% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 13,061 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 32 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 13,124 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

SEA → SMF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.7% of the time, against 67.0% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 24.7 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (SEA).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 7.8 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 3.0 points.

On-time arrival rate for SEA to SMF by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM
9 PM–10 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 7 AM and after 10 PM (1,252 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for SEA to SMF. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
7 AM–8 AM	90.1% on time152 flights	92.7% on time126 flights	92.9% on time127 flights	84.3% on time153 flights	82.7% on time156 flights	87.0% on time131 flights	92.4% on time132 flights
8 AM–9 AM	94.5% on time129 flights	96.0% on time126 flights	90.4% on time125 flights	93.7% on time127 flights	93.6% on time126 flights	113 flights, too few to score	93.0% on time130 flights
9 AM–10 AM	90.8% on time121 flights	100 flights, too few to score	100 flights, too few to score	80.8% on time121 flights	84.2% on time120 flights	90 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score
10 AM–11 AM	88.1% on time136 flights	87.8% on time123 flights	83.8% on time131 flights	82.7% on time134 flights	85.0% on time134 flights	96 flights, too few to score	113 flights, too few to score
11 AM–12 PM	82.4% on time132 flights	118 flights, too few to score	76.8% on time125 flights	76.5% on time132 flights	73.8% on time130 flights	68 flights, too few to score	78.4% on time126 flights
12 PM–1 PM	68.8% on time126 flights	79.5% on time157 flights	77.3% on time154 flights	73.0% on time126 flights	73.8% on time127 flights	106 flights, too few to score	64.7% on time135 flights
1 PM–2 PM	96 flights, too few to score	75 flights, too few to score	73 flights, too few to score	88 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	102 flights, too few to score	116 flights, too few to score
2 PM–3 PM	97 flights, too few to score	84 flights, too few to score	79 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	99 flights, too few to score	61 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	82 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score	79 flights, too few to score	81 flights, too few to score	44 flights, too few to score	69 flights, too few to score
4 PM–5 PM	80.4% on time143 flights	87.6% on time121 flights	113 flights, too few to score	75.0% on time141 flights	67.8% on time147 flights	91 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	95 flights, too few to score	82 flights, too few to score	84 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score	88 flights, too few to score
6 PM–7 PM	91 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	76 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score	88 flights, too few to score	64 flights, too few to score	71 flights, too few to score
7 PM–8 PM	77.5% on time213 flights	85.9% on time234 flights	81.5% on time233 flights	74.8% on time215 flights	78.2% on time207 flights	81.7% on time169 flights	67.4% on time239 flights
8 PM–9 PM	80 flights, too few to score	86 flights, too few to score	85 flights, too few to score	74 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	54 flights, too few to score	81 flights, too few to score
9 PM–10 PM	60.0% on time146 flights	93 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score	62.1% on time147 flights	64.5% on time153 flights	73 flights, too few to score	114 flights, too few to score

By departure window

5–9 AM91.7%

9 AM–12 PM82.9%

12–3 PM76.8%

3–6 PM77.4%

6–9 PM75.4%

9 PM–5 AM67.0%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why SEA → SMF runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft40.7%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline40.7%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control10.9%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather7.2%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.6%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SEA → SMF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on SEA → SMF, at 40.7%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.7% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 67.0%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of SEA to SMF: 1.9 times the normal rate at SEA and 1.6 times at SMF. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: SEA 1.5% against 0.8%, SMF 1.0% against 0.6%. Flights that did leave SEA in bad weather arrived on time 75.4% of the time, against 79.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from SEA and SMF in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	SEA	SMF
Cancelled in bad weather	1.5%	1.0%
Cancelled in normal hours	0.8%	0.6%
Arrived on time, bad weather	75.4%	83.0%
Arrived on time, normal hours	79.3%	83.2%
Departures in bad weather	43,416	12,018

Of the carriers on this route, Southwest Airlines (0.4% cancelled against 1.5% for the other carriers at SEA) cancelled the fewest departures from SEA in bad weather and Alaska Airlines (1.8% cancelled against 1.2% for the other carriers at SEA) the most.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at SEA

All departures from SEA

Cancellation rates in bad weather at SEA for the airlines that fly SEA to SMF, against the other carriers at SEA in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Southwest Airlines	2,229	0.4%below the others	1.5%
Delta Air Lines	9,020	1.1%below the others	1.6%
SkyWest Airlines	6,711	1.9%above the others	1.5%
Alaska Airlines	20,261	1.8%above the others	1.2%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from SEA and SMF, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from SEA on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: SEA (airlines), SMF, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
SkyWest Airlines	5,284	87.3%	0.11%	-6 min	3.4%
Southwest Airlines	3,801	75.2%	0.37%	-2 min	5.3%
Alaska Airlines	3,774	74.6%	0.82%	1 min	4.7%
Delta Air Lines	265	78.8%	0.38%	-4 min	8.7%

SkyWest Airlines flew 40.3% of the 13,124 flights listed.

SkyWest Airlines arrived on time 12.7 percentage points more often than Alaska Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
OO3881 SkyWest Airlines	8:25 AM	875	90.8%
OO4125 SkyWest Airlines	10:25 AM	776	90.5%
OO4043 SkyWest Airlines	4:59 PM	691	86.8%

OO3881 (8:25 AM) arrived on time 90.8% of the time, 4.0 points more often than OO4043 (4:59 PM) at 86.8%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon81.1%

Tue84.6%

Wed83.5%

Thu77.6%

Fri76.5%

Sat79.4%

Sun77.2%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 8.1 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and April the strongest, a spread of 9.6 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.0% against 79.1% in the 12 months before — improving by 2.9 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 13,124 SEA → SMF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

SEA airport SMF airport Return direction SMF → SEA

SEA→SMF

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why SEA → SMF flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why SEA → SMF runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at SEA

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology