Route profile
SEA→MSY
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Seattle to New Orleans, 2,086 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 86% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,085 flights. How this is calculated
SEA → MSY arrives on time 78.8% of the time; the return trip, MSY → SEA, arrives on time 75.7% of the time, a 3.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SEA → MSY spends 27.2 minutes on the ground on a 2,086-mile trip: 22.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SEA and 5.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSY.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where SEA to MSY differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SEA to MSY struggles most at 11 AM: 72.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 6.1 points behind the 79.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.1 points.
Alaska Airlines does better on SEA to MSY than on its routes of similar length: 78.8% on time here, 76.3% there, 2.5 points apart.
SEA to MSY against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 11 AM departures | 72.9% | routes of similar length | 79.0% | −6.1 pts | 291 here, 49,824 there |
| Airline: Alaska Airlines | 78.8% | routes of similar length | 76.3% | +2.5 pts | 2,054 here, 88,751 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,086 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
29 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 2,085 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSY after arriving from SEA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 41% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 20% | High risk |
| 60 min | 9.6% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.0% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 1.3% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.53% of the time and diverts 0.34% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,067 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 29 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,085 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Why SEA → MSY runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SEA → MSY. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 2,072 | 78.8% | 0.53% | -4 min | 3.1% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 9.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 76.3%
- Feb: 88.0%
- Mar: 78.9%
- Apr: 78.9%
- May: 81.7%
- Jun: 69.9%
- Jul: 67.9%
- Aug: 71.6%
- Sep: 85.9%
- Oct: 88.8%
- Nov: 85.6%
- Dec: 79.1%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 20.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 80.9% against 76.1% in the 12 months before — improving by 4.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,085 SEA → MSY flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed