Route profile
MSY→SEA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New Orleans to Seattle, 2,086 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 55% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,084 flights. How this is calculated
MSY → SEA arrives on time 75.7% of the time; the return trip, SEA → MSY, arrives on time 78.8% of the time, a 3.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSY → SEA spends 29.3 minutes on the ground on a 2,086-mile trip: 16.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSY and 12.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at SEA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Unlike most, it barely matters what time you fly this route, a steadier spread than 99% of 4,023 comparable routes.
77.2% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 73.7% for 3–6 PM, a narrow gap either way.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSY to SEA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSY to SEA struggles most at 7 AM: 77.2% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9.4 points behind the 86.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.6 points.
MSY to SEA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 74.4% arrive on time, 4.8 points ahead of the 69.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.8 points.
Monday is the day MSY to SEA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 70.6% on time where they average 78.4%, 7.8 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 6.7 points.
In June, MSY to SEA runs 10.1 points below routes of similar length, 64.2% on time to 74.3%. Against all other routes the gap is 8.5 points.
MSY to SEA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 AM departures | 77.2% | routes of similar length | 86.6% | −9.4 pts | 985 here, 91,348 there |
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 74.4% | routes of similar length | 69.6% | +4.8 pts | 497 here, 50,607 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 70.6% | routes of similar length | 78.4% | −7.8 pts | 309 here, 140,718 there |
| Month: June | 64.2% | routes of similar length | 74.3% | −10.1 pts | 176 here, 85,442 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,086 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
39 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 2,084 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SEA after arriving from MSY.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 45% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.4% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.3% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.82% of the time and diverts 0.19% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,063 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 39 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,084 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSY → SEA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 77.2% of the time, against 73.7% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 3.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 77.2% on time from 993 flights
- 8 AM to 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 75.5% on time from 143 flights
- 5 PM: 71.7% on time from 368 flights
- 6 PM: 74.4% on time from 501 flights
- 7 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSY → SEA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSY → SEA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MSY → SEA, at 43.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, though departure time makes little difference here: the best and worst windows are 4 points apart.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 2,071 | 75.8% | 0.82% | -2 min | 5.6% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 8.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 76.5%
- Feb: 82.8%
- Mar: 75.3%
- Apr: 78.9%
- May: 73.1%
- Jun: 64.2%
- Jul: 67.4%
- Aug: 69.1%
- Sep: 84.8%
- Oct: 82.1%
- Nov: 80.2%
- Dec: 79.4%
June is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 20.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 71.7% against 75.8% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,084 MSY → SEA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed