Route profile
SAN→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from San Diego to Minneapolis, 1,532 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 92% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 4,076 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
SAN → MSP arrives on time 86.6% of the time; the return trip, MSP → SAN, arrives on time 80.6% of the time, a 5.9-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SAN → MSP spends 29.8 minutes on the ground on a 1,532-mile trip: 22.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SAN and 7.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route stays close to typical even on its worst days, a smaller gap than 94% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 8 min early, and the worst tenth are only 29 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where SAN to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SAN to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 3 PM: 90.1% arrive on time, 18.4 points ahead of the 71.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 17.4 points.
SAN to MSP holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 86.5% on time to their 76.5%, a 10 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 9.7 points.
February is kinder to SAN to MSP than to routes of similar length: 94.1% on time against 81.6%, 12.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 12.7 points.
Delta Air Lines does better on SAN to MSP than on its routes of similar length: 86.6% on time here, 82.3% there, 4.3 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
SAN to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 3 PM departures | 90.1% | routes of similar length | 71.7% | +18.4 pts | 303 here, 86,423 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 86.5% | routes of similar length | 76.5% | +10.0 pts | 594 here, 237,801 there |
| Month: February | 94.1% | routes of similar length | 81.6% | +12.5 pts | 255 here, 110,057 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 86.6% | routes of similar length | 82.3% | +4.3 pts | 4,047 here, 310,269 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,532 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
21 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 4,076 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from SAN.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 7.2% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.8% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.4% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.52% of the time and diverts 0.20% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 4,047 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 21 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 4,076 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SAN → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.6% of the time, against 79.9% for 9 AM–12 PM departures, a gap of 12.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 93.9% on time from 1,127 flights
- 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 84.6% on time from 188 flights
- 9 AM to 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 79.9% on time from 593 flights
- 12 PM: 88.4% on time from 275 flights
- 1 PM: 77.8% on time from 535 flights
- 2 PM: 85.7% on time from 295 flights
- 3 PM: 90.1% on time from 304 flights
- 4 PM: 85.0% on time from 453 flights
- 5 PM: 84.4% on time from 179 flights
- 6 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why SAN → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SAN → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 4,076 | 86.6% | 0.52% | -8 min | 3.9% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2134 Delta Air Lines | 6:15 AM | 785 | 94.0% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 5.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 89.7%
- Feb: 94.1%
- Mar: 86.4%
- Apr: 90.9%
- May: 84.9%
- Jun: 78.7%
- Jul: 77.6%
- Aug: 83.6%
- Sep: 91.1%
- Oct: 90.8%
- Nov: 94.0%
- Dec: 82.6%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 16.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 86.2% from 123 flights
- August 2023: 84.2% from 124 flights
- September 2023: too few flights to score (118)
- October 2023: 91.7% from 120 flights
- November 2023: too few flights to score (107)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (113)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (106)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (107)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (117)
- July 2024: 56.5% from 122 flights
- August 2024: 80.0% from 120 flights
- September 2024: too few flights to score (113)
- October 2024: 86.2% from 123 flights
- November 2024: too few flights to score (116)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (113)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (84)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (107)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (106)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (107)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (96)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (84)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (114)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (116)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (112)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (105)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (108)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 88.7% against 85.6% in the 12 months before — improving by 3.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 4,076 SAN → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed