Route profile
MSP→SAN
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to San Diego, 1,532 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 85% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 4,077 flights. How this is calculated
MSP → SAN arrives on time 80.6% of the time; the return trip, SAN → MSP, arrives on time 86.6% of the time, a 5.9-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → SAN spends 25.0 minutes on the ground on a 1,532-mile trip: 17.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 7.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at SAN.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 97% of 5,368 comparable routes.
78.3% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 78.5% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to SAN differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to SAN is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 9 PM: 75.9% arrive on time, 10.1 points ahead of the 65.8% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.4 points.
MSP to SAN struggles most at 8 AM: 80.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 4.9 points behind the 85.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.4 points.
MSP to SAN holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 83.3% on time to their 78.7%, a 4.6 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 4.2 points.
May is kinder to MSP to SAN than to routes of similar length: 82.0% on time against 74.8%, 7.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.8 points.
In June, MSP to SAN runs 5.2 points below routes of similar length, 66.4% on time to 71.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 6.3 points.
MSP to SAN against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 75.9% | routes of similar length | 65.8% | +10.1 pts | 588 here, 31,769 there |
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 80.5% | routes of similar length | 85.4% | −4.9 pts | 441 here, 119,404 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 83.3% | routes of similar length | 78.7% | +4.6 pts | 533 here, 210,979 there |
| Month: May | 82.0% | routes of similar length | 74.8% | +7.2 pts | 338 here, 136,490 there |
| Month: June | 66.4% | routes of similar length | 71.6% | −5.2 pts | 336 here, 139,433 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,532 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
32 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 4,077 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SAN after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 36% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 10% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.3% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.3% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.49% of the time and diverts 0.39% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 4,041 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 32 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 4,077 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → SAN flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 83.7% of the time, against 75.9% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 7.8 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 80.5% on time from 444 flights
- 9 AM: 84.8% on time from 621 flights
- 10 AM: 80.5% on time from 156 flights
- 11 AM: 83.4% on time from 961 flights
- 12 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 79.1% on time from 1,040 flights
- 7 PM to 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 75.9% on time from 601 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSP → SAN runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → SAN. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 4,077 | 80.6% | 0.49% | -6 min | 4.5% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL2125 (11:00 AM) arrived on time 79.8% of the time, 5.9 points more often than DL2145 (6:59 PM) at 73.9%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 6.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 80.8%
- Feb: 84.3%
- Mar: 82.2%
- Apr: 86.3%
- May: 82.0%
- Jun: 66.4%
- Jul: 74.0%
- Aug: 78.9%
- Sep: 88.1%
- Oct: 85.4%
- Nov: 86.9%
- Dec: 75.8%
June is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 21.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 82.1% from 123 flights
- August 2023: 86.1% from 124 flights
- September 2023: too few flights to score (118)
- October 2023: 91.6% from 120 flights
- November 2023: too few flights to score (107)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (113)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (106)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (107)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (117)
- July 2024: 67.8% from 122 flights
- August 2024: 70.0% from 120 flights
- September 2024: too few flights to score (113)
- October 2024: 81.8% from 123 flights
- November 2024: too few flights to score (116)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (113)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (84)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (107)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (106)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (117)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (107)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (96)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (84)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (114)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (116)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (112)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (105)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (108)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 78.3% against 78.5% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 4,077 MSP → SAN flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed