Route profile
RSW→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Fort Myers to Minneapolis, 1,416 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 60% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,839 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
RSW → MSP arrives on time 83.4% of the time; the return trip, MSP → RSW, arrives on time 80.3% of the time, a 3.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
RSW → MSP spends 22.7 minutes on the ground on a 1,416-mile trip: 15.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at RSW and 7.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where RSW to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
RSW to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 80.5% arrive on time, 10.4 points ahead of the 70.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12 points.
RSW to MSP holds up on Mondays better than routes of similar length do: 84.9% on time to their 77.0%, a 7.9 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7.7 points.
July is kinder to RSW to MSP than to routes of similar length: 85.1% on time against 69.8%, 15.3 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 15.4 points.
In March, RSW to MSP runs 4.6 points below routes of similar length, 73.5% on time to 78.1%. Against all other routes the gap is 4.4 points.
RSW to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 80.5% | routes of similar length | 70.1% | +10.4 pts | 763 here, 113,905 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 84.9% | routes of similar length | 77.0% | +7.9 pts | 543 here, 244,326 there |
| Month: July | 85.1% | routes of similar length | 69.8% | +15.3 pts | 288 here, 185,851 there |
| Month: March | 73.5% | routes of similar length | 78.1% | −4.6 pts | 498 here, 138,141 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,416 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why RSW → MSP flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
RSW → MSP cancelled 51 of 3,839 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 75. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 54.9% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 137 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 51 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
28 cancellations, 54.9% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
22 cancellations, 43.1% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
1 cancellation, 2.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
51 coded cancellations were recorded on RSW → MSP; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
38 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 3,839 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from RSW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 29% | High risk |
| 45 min | 16% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.8% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.5% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.33% of the time and diverts 0.08% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,785 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 38 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,839 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
RSW → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 93.9% of the time, against 73.7% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 20.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 94.4% on time from 735 flights
- 7 AM: 92.9% on time from 345 flights
- 8 AM to 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 78.7% on time from 223 flights
- 12 PM: 84.6% on time from 276 flights
- 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 79.3% on time from 721 flights
- 3 PM: 73.8% on time from 131 flights
- 4 PM: 77.4% on time from 191 flights
- 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 80.5% on time from 774 flights
- 7 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why RSW → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for RSW → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on RSW → MSP, at 45.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 93.9% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 73.7%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,635 | 84.4% | 1.07% | -9 min | 6.7% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2219 Delta Air Lines | 6:00 AM | 772 | 93.3% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 5.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.7%
- Feb: 81.8%
- Mar: 73.5%
- Apr: 85.6%
- May: 81.4%
- Jun: 86.0%
- Jul: 85.1%
- Aug: 90.6%
- Sep: 93.1%
- Oct: 91.5%
- Nov: 88.8%
- Dec: 77.7%
March is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 19.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (62)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (62)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (61)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (78)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (101)
- December 2023: 84.5% from 143 flights
- January 2024: 81.8% from 160 flights
- February 2024: 89.0% from 145 flights
- March 2024: 78.4% from 181 flights
- April 2024: 91.9% from 151 flights
- May 2024: too few flights to score (99)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (66)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (62)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (62)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (60)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (86)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (86)
- December 2024: 77.7% from 123 flights
- January 2025: 85.5% from 132 flights
- February 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- March 2025: 69.5% from 176 flights
- April 2025: 84.3% from 141 flights
- May 2025: too few flights to score (99)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (88)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (88)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (69)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (56)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (79)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (82)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (112)
- January 2026: 80.8% from 125 flights
- February 2026: 70.5% from 129 flights
- March 2026: 72.3% from 158 flights
- April 2026: 79.9% from 134 flights
- May 2026: too few flights to score (99)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (84)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (84)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 80.3% against 83.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.4 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,839 RSW → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed