Route profile
RSW→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Fort Myers to Chicago, 1,105 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 44% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,567 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
RSW → MDW arrives on time 76.8% of the time; the return trip, MDW → RSW, arrives on time 76.6% of the time.
RSW → MDW spends 18.9 minutes on the ground on a 1,105-mile trip: 13.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at RSW and 5.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 94% of 4,023 comparable routes.
94.4% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 61.9% for 6–9 PM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where RSW to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
RSW to MDW struggles most at 7 PM: 57.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9.1 points behind the 66.1% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.8 points.
RSW to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 AM: 95.6% arrive on time, 5.3 points ahead of the 90.3% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.8 points.
RSW to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 57.0% | routes of similar length | 66.1% | −9.1 pts | 228 here, 174,225 there |
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 95.6% | routes of similar length | 90.3% | +5.3 pts | 456 here, 207,029 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,105 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why RSW → MDW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
RSW → MDW cancelled 58 of 3,567 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 62. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 69.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 89 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 58 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
40 cancellations, 69.0% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
12 cancellations, 20.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
6 cancellations, 10.3% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
58 coded cancellations were recorded on RSW → MDW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
40 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 3,567 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from RSW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 43% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.7% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.1% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.63% of the time and diverts 0.50% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,491 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 40 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,567 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
RSW → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 94.4% of the time, against 61.9% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 32.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 95.7% on time from 234 flights
- 6 AM: 95.6% on time from 467 flights
- 7 AM: 92.4% on time from 362 flights
- 8 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 82.6% on time from 141 flights
- 11 AM: 72.1% on time from 285 flights
- 12 PM: 74.3% on time from 230 flights
- 1 PM: 75.1% on time from 256 flights
- 2 PM: 70.5% on time from 147 flights
- 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 71.2% on time from 189 flights
- 5 PM: 60.5% on time from 229 flights
- 6 PM: 61.4% on time from 259 flights
- 7 PM: 57.0% on time from 234 flights
- 8 PM: 70.3% on time from 149 flights
- 9 PM: 65.1% on time from 155 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why RSW → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for RSW → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on RSW → MDW, at 58.7%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 94.4% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 61.9%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 3,567 | 76.8% | 1.63% | -3 min | 6.8% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Thursday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 6.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.9%
- Feb: 79.5%
- Mar: 71.5%
- Apr: 76.8%
- May: 72.5%
- Jun: 76.9%
- Jul: 69.9%
- Aug: 75.9%
- Sep: 85.8%
- Oct: 85.0%
- Nov: 83.6%
- Dec: 72.8%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 15.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (91)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (92)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (98)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (97)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- March 2024: 70.1% from 144 flights
- April 2024: too few flights to score (103)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (81)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (84)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (72)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (69)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (92)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (89)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (101)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (108)
- March 2025: 77.4% from 159 flights
- April 2025: too few flights to score (109)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (86)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (88)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (72)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (69)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (90)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (95)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (101)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (110)
- March 2026: 66.7% from 163 flights
- April 2026: too few flights to score (104)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (92)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (86)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (88)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.1% against 81.3% in the 12 months before — declining by 7.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,567 RSW → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed