Route profile
MDW→RSW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Fort Myers, 1,105 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 47% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,565 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MDW → RSW arrives on time 76.6% of the time; the return trip, RSW → MDW, arrives on time 76.8% of the time.
MDW → RSW spends 19.1 minutes on the ground on a 1,105-mile trip: 14.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 4.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at RSW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 90% of 3,357 comparable routes.
85.5% on time in a typical November, against 61.4% in July.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to RSW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to RSW struggles most at 2 PM: 60.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 11.9 points behind the 72.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.7 points.
MDW to RSW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 1 PM: 80.0% arrive on time, 5 points ahead of the 75.0% those routes manage at that hour.
In July, MDW to RSW runs 6.9 points below routes of similar length, 61.4% on time to 68.3%. Against all other routes the gap is 8.3 points.
April is kinder to MDW to RSW than to routes of similar length: 84.5% on time against 79.0%, 5.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 4.6 points.
MDW to RSW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 60.9% | routes of similar length | 72.8% | −11.9 pts | 174 here, 166,149 there |
| Hour: 1 PM departures | 80.0% | routes of similar length | 75.0% | +5.0 pts | 446 here, 148,593 there |
| Month: July | 61.4% | routes of similar length | 68.3% | −6.9 pts | 347 here, 292,349 there |
| Month: April | 84.5% | routes of similar length | 79.0% | +5.5 pts | 310 here, 228,517 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,105 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MDW → RSW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MDW → RSW cancelled 50 of 3,565 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 71. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 70.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 102 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 50 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
35 cancellations, 70.0% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
11 cancellations, 22.0% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
4 cancellations, 8.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
50 coded cancellations were recorded on MDW → RSW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
42 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 3,565 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at RSW after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 42% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.40% of the time and diverts 0.59% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,494 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 42 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,565 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → RSW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.0% of the time, against 65.6% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 22.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 94.4% on time from 205 flights
- 6 AM: 93.1% on time from 275 flights
- 7 AM: 85.5% on time from 240 flights
- 8 AM: 80.6% on time from 281 flights
- 9 AM: 84.2% on time from 238 flights
- 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 80.5% on time from 134 flights
- 12 PM: 73.8% on time from 134 flights
- 1 PM: 80.0% on time from 454 flights
- 2 PM: 60.9% on time from 178 flights
- 3 PM: 71.9% on time from 135 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 73.8% on time from 131 flights
- 6 PM: 70.8% on time from 376 flights
- 7 PM: 68.1% on time from 260 flights
- 8 PM: 56.1% on time from 272 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MDW → RSW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → RSW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → RSW, at 40.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 88.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 65.6%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 3,565 | 76.6% | 1.40% | -3 min | 6.8% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Monday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 6.0 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.3%
- Feb: 82.1%
- Mar: 73.7%
- Apr: 84.5%
- May: 75.1%
- Jun: 71.4%
- Jul: 61.4%
- Aug: 74.1%
- Sep: 82.6%
- Oct: 83.0%
- Nov: 85.5%
- Dec: 72.7%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 24.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (89)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (89)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (92)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (98)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (97)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (92)
- March 2024: 78.7% from 144 flights
- April 2024: too few flights to score (103)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (88)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (81)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (84)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (72)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (69)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (89)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (103)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (108)
- March 2025: 79.2% from 159 flights
- April 2025: too few flights to score (109)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (86)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (88)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (72)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (69)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (92)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (94)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (102)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (110)
- March 2026: 63.6% from 163 flights
- April 2026: too few flights to score (103)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (92)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (86)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (88)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.5% against 80.4% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.9 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,565 MDW → RSW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed