Route profile
RDU→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Raleigh–Durham to Minneapolis, 980 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 75% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,790 flights. How this is calculated
RDU → MSP arrives on time 84.7% of the time; the return trip, MSP → RDU, arrives on time 82.1% of the time, a 2.6-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
RDU → MSP spends 22.1 minutes on the ground on a 980-mile trip: 15.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at RDU and 6.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where RDU to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
RDU to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 3 PM: 86.7% arrive on time, 16.4 points ahead of the 70.3% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14 points.
RDU to MSP holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 82.2% on time to their 73.7%, a 8.5 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7.4 points.
October is kinder to RDU to MSP than to routes of similar length: 95.2% on time against 82.7%, 12.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 12.2 points.
Delta Air Lines does better on RDU to MSP than on its routes of similar length: 84.6% on time here, 80.8% there, 3.8 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 3.1 points.
RDU to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 3 PM departures | 86.7% | routes of similar length | 70.3% | +16.4 pts | 460 here, 190,642 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 82.2% | routes of similar length | 73.7% | +8.5 pts | 538 here, 461,806 there |
| Month: October | 95.2% | routes of similar length | 82.7% | +12.5 pts | 331 here, 257,396 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 84.6% | routes of similar length | 80.8% | +3.8 pts | 3,726 here, 459,434 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 980 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
32 min late
against a median of 10 min early
Percentiles over 3,790 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from RDU.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 28% | High risk |
| 45 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 10% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.6% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.77% of the time and diverts 0.11% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,757 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 32 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,790 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
RDU → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.1% of the time, against 76.1% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 16.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.9% on time from 1,104 flights
- 7 AM to 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 85.4% on time from 584 flights
- 12 PM: 82.7% on time from 434 flights
- 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 77.2% on time from 160 flights
- 3 PM: 86.7% on time from 461 flights
- 4 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 78.4% on time from 564 flights
- 7 PM: 72.6% on time from 371 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why RDU → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for RDU → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,758 | 84.6% | 0.75% | -10 min | 5.8% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2538 Delta Air Lines | 6:00 AM | 631 | 91.5% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 6.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.0%
- Feb: 89.2%
- Mar: 81.8%
- Apr: 85.4%
- May: 85.1%
- Jun: 80.7%
- Jul: 72.4%
- Aug: 83.5%
- Sep: 90.2%
- Oct: 95.2%
- Nov: 93.3%
- Dec: 80.2%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 22.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (117)
- August 2023: 83.3% from 120 flights
- September 2023: too few flights to score (111)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (108)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (104)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (78)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (74)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (113)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- July 2024: 75.2% from 122 flights
- August 2024: too few flights to score (117)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (111)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (109)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (105)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (92)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (81)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (79)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (90)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (117)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (115)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (107)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (106)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (74)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (78)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (89)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (104)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (118)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (113)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (117)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 84.0% against 84.6% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,790 RDU → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed