Route profile
OAK→DEN
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Oakland to Denver, 957 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 75% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,532 flights. How this is calculated
OAK → DEN arrives on time 78.3% of the time; the return trip, DEN → OAK, arrives on time 69.2% of the time, a 9.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
OAK → DEN spends 19.6 minutes on the ground on a 957-mile trip: 12.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at OAK and 7.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at DEN.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability on this route has fallen unusually sharply over the past year, a bigger swing than 90% of 5,368 comparable routes.
72.3% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 81.6% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), a change of 9.3 points.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where OAK to DEN differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
OAK to DEN struggles most at 2 PM: 59.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 14.2 points behind the 73.7% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 15.1 points.
OAK to DEN is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 77.6% arrive on time, 9.7 points ahead of the 67.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9 points.
OAK to DEN holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 83.0% on time to their 77.9%, a 5.1 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 3.9 points.
January is kinder to OAK to DEN than to routes of similar length: 85.5% on time against 78.0%, 7.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.4 points.
In April, OAK to DEN runs 4.7 points below routes of similar length, 75.1% on time to 79.8%. Against all other routes the gap is 4.8 points.
OAK to DEN against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 59.5% | routes of similar length | 73.7% | −14.2 pts | 375 here, 188,710 there |
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 77.6% | routes of similar length | 67.9% | +9.7 pts | 348 here, 195,153 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 83.0% | routes of similar length | 77.9% | +5.1 pts | 724 here, 405,934 there |
| Month: January | 85.5% | routes of similar length | 78.0% | +7.5 pts | 401 here, 232,761 there |
| Month: April | 75.1% | routes of similar length | 79.8% | −4.7 pts | 438 here, 255,909 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 957 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
36 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 5,532 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DEN after arriving from OAK.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 44% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.0% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.5% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.40% of the time and diverts 0.33% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,492 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 36 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,532 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
OAK → DEN flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.9% of the time, against 67.0% for 12–3 PM departures, a gap of 24.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 93.4% on time from 775 flights
- 6 AM: 92.8% on time from 336 flights
- 7 AM: 92.9% on time from 198 flights
- 8 AM: 89.3% on time from 617 flights
- 9 AM: 88.5% on time from 263 flights
- 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 77.0% on time from 332 flights
- 12 PM: 75.6% on time from 410 flights
- 1 PM: 63.8% on time from 226 flights
- 2 PM: 59.5% on time from 379 flights
- 3 PM: 63.0% on time from 347 flights
- 4 PM: 67.2% on time from 193 flights
- 5 PM: 74.3% on time from 253 flights
- 6 PM: 77.6% on time from 350 flights
- 7 PM: 64.0% on time from 422 flights
- 8 PM: 68.3% on time from 225 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why OAK → DEN runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for OAK → DEN. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on OAK → DEN, at 37.9%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.9% of the time and 12–3 PM departures 67.0%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 5,532 | 78.3% | 0.40% | -2 min | 5.2% |
Other ways to fly San Francisco to Denver
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFO→DEN San Francisco to Denver | 17,119 | 76.4% | 0.62% | -5 min | 66 |
| OAK→DEN this route Oakland to Denver | 5,532 | 78.3% | 0.40% | -2 min | 75 |
OAK → DEN is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 78.3% on time, against 76.4% for SFO → DEN.
Flying to DEN from the San Francisco area? Compare OAK, SFO, SJC for DEN, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 8.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.5%
- Feb: 82.7%
- Mar: 77.6%
- Apr: 75.1%
- May: 75.4%
- Jun: 69.2%
- Jul: 71.1%
- Aug: 76.1%
- Sep: 81.5%
- Oct: 82.3%
- Nov: 87.0%
- Dec: 81.8%
June is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 17.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 69.7% from 178 flights
- August 2023: 71.5% from 180 flights
- September 2023: 83.7% from 172 flights
- October 2023: 85.3% from 163 flights
- November 2023: 84.5% from 169 flights
- December 2023: 83.9% from 180 flights
- January 2024: 85.1% from 157 flights
- February 2024: 83.5% from 141 flights
- March 2024: 78.3% from 161 flights
- April 2024: 78.8% from 165 flights
- May 2024: 84.2% from 173 flights
- June 2024: 77.0% from 175 flights
- July 2024: 77.0% from 181 flights
- August 2024: 85.0% from 154 flights
- September 2024: 88.2% from 144 flights
- October 2024: 90.0% from 150 flights
- November 2024: 92.7% from 137 flights
- December 2024: 87.9% from 141 flights
- January 2025: 84.1% from 126 flights
- February 2025: 82.5% from 120 flights
- March 2025: 86.6% from 142 flights
- April 2025: 74.0% from 150 flights
- May 2025: 73.5% from 157 flights
- June 2025: 66.5% from 155 flights
- July 2025: 71.6% from 159 flights
- August 2025: 72.1% from 141 flights
- September 2025: 71.5% from 137 flights
- October 2025: 71.1% from 149 flights
- November 2025: 84.3% from 129 flights
- December 2025: 72.8% from 137 flights
- January 2026: 87.6% from 121 flights
- February 2026: too few flights to score (112)
- March 2026: 66.1% from 124 flights
- April 2026: 71.5% from 123 flights
- May 2026: 65.9% from 128 flights
- June 2026: 62.8% from 147 flights
- July 2026: 65.1% from 154 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 72.3% against 81.6% in the 12 months before — declining by 9.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,532 OAK → DEN flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed