Route profile
MSY→DFW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New Orleans to Dallas–Fort Worth, 447 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 4% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,072 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSY → DFW arrives on time 72.2% of the time; the return trip, DFW → MSY, arrives on time 67.5% of the time, a 4.6-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSY → DFW spends 30.3 minutes on the ground on a 447-mile trip: 15.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSY and 15.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at DFW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 91% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 3 min early, but the worst tenth run 72 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSY to DFW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSY to DFW struggles most at 6 AM: 77.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 15 points behind the 92.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.8 points.
Wednesday is the day MSY to DFW slips furthest against routes of similar length, 72.9% on time where they average 82.1%, 9.2 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 7.9 points.
In May, MSY to DFW runs 13.5 points below routes of similar length, 62.7% on time to 76.2%. Against all other routes the gap is 12.6 points.
Spirit Airlines’ flights on MSY to DFW arrive on time 70.2% of the time, 7.1 points below the 77.3% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
MSY to DFW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 77.0% | routes of similar length | 92.0% | −15.0 pts | 204 here, 106,593 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 72.9% | routes of similar length | 82.1% | −9.2 pts | 1,179 here, 218,581 there |
| Month: May | 62.7% | routes of similar length | 76.2% | −13.5 pts | 729 here, 132,953 there |
| Airline: Spirit Airlines | 70.2% | routes of similar length | 77.3% | −7.1 pts | 759 here, 53,001 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 447 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSY → DFW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSY → DFW cancelled 256 of 9,072 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 35. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 84.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 42 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 256 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
217 cancellations, 84.8% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
30 cancellations, 11.7% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
9 cancellations, 3.5% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
256 coded cancellations were recorded on MSY → DFW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
69 min late
against a median of 3 min early
MSY → DFW has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 3 min early, but the worst tenth are 72 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 9,072 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DFW after arriving from MSY.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 43% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 27% | High risk |
| 60 min | 19% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.8% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.82% of the time and diverts 0.20% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,798 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 69 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,072 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSY → DFW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 80.8% of the time, against 59.2% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 21.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 84.5% on time from 983 flights
- 6 AM: 77.0% on time from 211 flights
- 7 AM: 77.8% on time from 964 flights
- 8 AM: too few flights to score
- 9 AM: 79.5% on time from 1,058 flights
- 10 AM: 80.5% on time from 928 flights
- 11 AM: 76.9% on time from 550 flights
- 12 PM: 68.2% on time from 283 flights
- 1 PM: 70.7% on time from 493 flights
- 2 PM: 64.2% on time from 370 flights
- 3 PM: 67.6% on time from 570 flights
- 4 PM: 68.6% on time from 511 flights
- 5 PM: 58.9% on time from 534 flights
- 6 PM: 57.3% on time from 637 flights
- 7 PM: 59.8% on time from 729 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSY → DFW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSY → DFW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MSY → DFW, at 48.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 80.8% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 59.2%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 7,299 | 72.0% | 2.82% | -3 min | 11.8% |
| Envoy Air | 802 | 75.7% | 3.62% | -4 min | 8.3% |
| Spirit Airlines | 774 | 70.2% | 1.81% | -3 min | 12.0% |
American Airlines flew 82.2% of the 8,875 flights listed. Envoy Air cancelled 3.62% of its flights here against 1.81% for Spirit Airlines.
Envoy Air arrived on time 5.5 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 70.7%
- Feb: 80.4%
- Mar: 70.8%
- Apr: 69.5%
- May: 62.7%
- Jun: 63.7%
- Jul: 62.2%
- Aug: 74.9%
- Sep: 79.8%
- Oct: 80.5%
- Nov: 80.8%
- Dec: 75.0%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 18.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 69.6% from 273 flights
- August 2023: 80.7% from 260 flights
- September 2023: 82.6% from 210 flights
- October 2023: 78.0% from 252 flights
- November 2023: 84.4% from 256 flights
- December 2023: 83.6% from 225 flights
- January 2024: 62.7% from 215 flights
- February 2024: 80.7% from 244 flights
- March 2024: 69.4% from 282 flights
- April 2024: 64.2% from 259 flights
- May 2024: 51.2% from 275 flights
- June 2024: 65.7% from 257 flights
- July 2024: 55.4% from 287 flights
- August 2024: 76.9% from 231 flights
- September 2024: 78.9% from 233 flights
- October 2024: 87.4% from 277 flights
- November 2024: 79.4% from 236 flights
- December 2024: 66.5% from 231 flights
- January 2025: 75.5% from 231 flights
- February 2025: 77.3% from 243 flights
- March 2025: 66.5% from 272 flights
- April 2025: 71.8% from 254 flights
- May 2025: 69.0% from 257 flights
- June 2025: 62.3% from 250 flights
- July 2025: 56.8% from 254 flights
- August 2025: 66.4% from 239 flights
- September 2025: 78.1% from 234 flights
- October 2025: 75.6% from 258 flights
- November 2025: 78.2% from 229 flights
- December 2025: 75.0% from 201 flights
- January 2026: 74.6% from 206 flights
- February 2026: 83.7% from 211 flights
- March 2026: 77.2% from 249 flights
- April 2026: 72.8% from 253 flights
- May 2026: 68.5% from 243 flights
- June 2026: 62.7% from 227 flights
- July 2026: 66.8% from 258 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.1% against 72.3% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,072 MSY → DFW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed