Route profile
MSY→DCA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New Orleans to Washington, 969 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 9% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,766 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSY → DCA arrives on time 73.6% of the time; the return trip, DCA → MSY, arrives on time 76.1% of the time, a 2.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSY → DCA spends 21.4 minutes on the ground on a 969-mile trip: 14.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSY and 7.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSY to DCA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSY to DCA struggles most at 5 PM: 62.4% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 5.4 points behind the 67.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.4 points.
Wednesday is the day MSY to DCA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 73.2% on time where they average 80.0%, 6.8 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 7.6 points.
MSY to DCA holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 82.6% on time to their 77.7%, a 4.9 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 3.5 points.
In February, MSY to DCA runs 14.2 points below routes of similar length, 66.8% on time to 81.0%. Against all other routes the gap is 14.7 points.
Southwest Airlines’ flights on MSY to DCA arrive on time 72.3% of the time, 3.6 points below the 75.9% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
MSY to DCA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 62.4% | routes of similar length | 67.8% | −5.4 pts | 1,165 here, 181,691 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 73.2% | routes of similar length | 80.0% | −6.8 pts | 809 here, 410,686 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 82.6% | routes of similar length | 77.7% | +4.9 pts | 625 here, 401,281 there |
| Month: February | 66.8% | routes of similar length | 81.0% | −14.2 pts | 452 here, 222,054 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 72.3% | routes of similar length | 75.9% | −3.6 pts | 2,143 here, 761,267 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 969 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSY → DCA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSY → DCA cancelled 161 of 5,766 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 36. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 70.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 51 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 161 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
114 cancellations, 70.8% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
26 cancellations, 16.1% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
21 cancellations, 13.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
161 coded cancellations were recorded on MSY → DCA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
61 min late
against a median of 3 min early
MSY → DCA has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 3 min early, but the worst tenth are 64 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 5,766 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DCA after arriving from MSY.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 42% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 26% | High risk |
| 60 min | 18% | High risk |
| 90 min | 10% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.4% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.79% of the time and diverts 0.71% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,564 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 61 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,766 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSY → DCA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.2% of the time, against 65.6% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 22.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 8 AM: too few flights to score
- 9 AM: 87.5% on time from 243 flights
- 10 AM: 81.2% on time from 1,376 flights
- 11 AM: 83.6% on time from 353 flights
- 12 PM to 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 73.0% on time from 261 flights
- 3 PM: 70.5% on time from 830 flights
- 4 PM: 65.6% on time from 869 flights
- 5 PM: 62.4% on time from 1,210 flights
- 6 PM: 75.2% on time from 125 flights
- 7 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MSY → DCA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSY → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MSY → DCA, at 49.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 88.2% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 65.6%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 2,180 | 72.3% | 1.19% | -1 min | 9.0% |
| PSA Airlines | 1,446 | 71.7% | 6.36% | -7 min | 13.7% |
| American Airlines | 1,325 | 73.6% | 1.81% | -4 min | 10.7% |
| Republic Airways | 693 | 82.5% | 2.02% | -8 min | 5.6% |
Southwest Airlines flew 38.6% of the 5,644 flights listed. PSA Airlines cancelled 6.36% of its flights here against 1.19% for Southwest Airlines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 10.8 percentage points more often than PSA Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 12.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 75.4%
- Feb: 66.8%
- Mar: 73.2%
- Apr: 76.2%
- May: 71.5%
- Jun: 66.4%
- Jul: 60.3%
- Aug: 78.2%
- Sep: 81.0%
- Oct: 80.0%
- Nov: 82.1%
- Dec: 75.4%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 21.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 64.2% from 151 flights
- August 2023: 86.3% from 151 flights
- September 2023: 81.4% from 145 flights
- October 2023: 84.1% from 151 flights
- November 2023: 88.7% from 144 flights
- December 2023: 82.6% from 144 flights
- January 2024: 71.4% from 144 flights
- February 2024: 79.9% from 139 flights
- March 2024: 80.4% from 154 flights
- April 2024: 76.7% from 150 flights
- May 2024: 74.5% from 155 flights
- June 2024: 74.5% from 150 flights
- July 2024: 59.3% from 154 flights
- August 2024: 74.8% from 150 flights
- September 2024: 88.9% from 150 flights
- October 2024: 83.9% from 155 flights
- November 2024: 84.9% from 141 flights
- December 2024: 69.9% from 148 flights
- January 2025: 73.5% from 176 flights
- February 2025: 50.0% from 172 flights
- March 2025: 76.5% from 190 flights
- April 2025: 75.8% from 154 flights
- May 2025: 75.0% from 154 flights
- June 2025: 58.7% from 146 flights
- July 2025: 63.3% from 150 flights
- August 2025: 73.2% from 145 flights
- September 2025: 72.5% from 142 flights
- October 2025: 71.9% from 153 flights
- November 2025: 74.1% from 169 flights
- December 2025: 74.1% from 176 flights
- January 2026: 80.5% from 173 flights
- February 2026: 71.7% from 165 flights
- March 2026: 63.7% from 189 flights
- April 2026: 76.1% from 177 flights
- May 2026: 65.7% from 171 flights
- June 2026: 65.2% from 142 flights
- July 2026: 54.0% from 146 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 70.4% against 72.8% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.4 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,766 MSY → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed