Route profile
MSP→SNA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Santa Ana, 1,522 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 43% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 1,761 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSP → SNA arrives on time 73.7% of the time; the return trip, SNA → MSP, arrives on time 83.5% of the time, a 9.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → SNA spends 28.5 minutes on the ground on a 1,522-mile trip: 18.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 10.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at SNA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 98% of 4,467 comparable routes.
75.6% on time on the best day (Tuesday) against 72.4% on the worst (Friday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to SNA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to SNA struggles most at 10 AM: 75.3% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 5 points behind the 80.3% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.4 points.
Wednesday is the day MSP to SNA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 73.2% on time where they average 80.2%, 7 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 7.6 points.
In October, MSP to SNA runs 9.4 points below routes of similar length, 73.6% on time to 83.0%. Against all other routes the gap is 9.4 points.
Delta Air Lines’ flights on MSP to SNA arrive on time 73.7% of the time, 8.9 points below the 82.6% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 7.8 points.
MSP to SNA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 10 AM departures | 75.3% | routes of similar length | 80.3% | −5.0 pts | 392 here, 91,946 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 73.2% | routes of similar length | 80.2% | −7.0 pts | 220 here, 224,742 there |
| Month: October | 73.6% | routes of similar length | 83.0% | −9.4 pts | 148 here, 136,310 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 73.7% | routes of similar length | 82.6% | −8.9 pts | 1,739 here, 324,146 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,522 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
47 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 1,761 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SNA after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 45% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 26% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 7.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.62% of the time and diverts 0.62% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 1,739 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 47 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 1,761 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Why MSP → SNA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → SNA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,761 | 73.7% | 0.62% | -2 min | 7.6% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2107 Delta Air Lines | 6:15 PM | 782 | 69.7% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 3.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 71.4%
- Feb: 79.8%
- Mar: 78.9%
- Apr: 79.0%
- May: 73.0%
- Jun: 63.5%
- Jul: 68.3%
- Aug: 73.0%
- Sep: 80.1%
- Oct: 73.6%
- Nov: 75.2%
- Dec: 70.7%
June is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 16.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 68.8% against 75.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 6.4 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 1,761 MSP → SNA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed