Route profile
MSP→MIA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Miami, 1,501 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 79% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,614 flights. How this is calculated
MSP → MIA arrives on time 81.5% of the time; the return trip, MIA → MSP, arrives on time 73.8% of the time, a 7.6-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → MIA spends 31.8 minutes on the ground on a 1,501-mile trip: 19.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 12.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at MIA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 98% of 5,368 comparable routes.
82.8% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 82.7% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to MIA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to MIA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 76.4% arrive on time, 5.9 points ahead of the 70.5% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.8 points.
MSP to MIA holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 84.4% on time to their 76.8%, a 7.6 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7.6 points.
June is kinder to MSP to MIA than to routes of similar length: 82.5% on time against 71.8%, 10.7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.8 points.
In March, MSP to MIA runs 5.8 points below routes of similar length, 72.6% on time to 78.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 5.3 points.
American Airlines does better on MSP to MIA than on its routes of similar length: 86.6% on time here, 75.0% there, 11.6 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 11.5 points.
MSP to MIA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 76.4% | routes of similar length | 70.5% | +5.9 pts | 525 here, 102,789 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 84.4% | routes of similar length | 76.8% | +7.6 pts | 520 here, 221,956 there |
| Month: June | 82.5% | routes of similar length | 71.8% | +10.7 pts | 269 here, 128,655 there |
| Month: March | 72.6% | routes of similar length | 78.4% | −5.8 pts | 358 here, 124,531 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 86.6% | routes of similar length | 75.0% | +11.6 pts | 1,126 here, 270,860 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,501 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
33 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 3,614 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MIA after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 18% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.9% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 3.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.58% of the time and diverts 0.33% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,581 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 33 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,614 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → MIA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 86.2% of the time, against 75.0% for 12–3 PM departures, a gap of 11.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 87.0% on time from 1,007 flights
- 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 84.6% on time from 484 flights
- 9 AM: 81.9% on time from 746 flights
- 10 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 79.4% on time from 287 flights
- 1 PM: 71.9% on time from 265 flights
- 2 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 76.4% on time from 528 flights
- 7 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSP → MIA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → MIA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 2,332 | 79.8% | 0.51% | -7 min | 4.9% |
| American Airlines | 1,137 | 86.6% | 0.79% | -11 min | 4.4% |
Delta Air Lines flew 67.2% of the 3,469 flights listed.
American Airlines arrived on time 6.8 percentage points more often than Delta Air Lines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 74.0%
- Feb: 82.7%
- Mar: 72.6%
- Apr: 83.0%
- May: 84.8%
- Jun: 82.5%
- Jul: 79.2%
- Aug: 80.8%
- Sep: 89.9%
- Oct: 89.7%
- Nov: 89.1%
- Dec: 77.5%
March is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 17.3 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (92)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (84)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (54)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (80)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (90)
- December 2023: 79.1% from 129 flights
- January 2024: 71.2% from 158 flights
- February 2024: 83.6% from 128 flights
- March 2024: 68.1% from 144 flights
- April 2024: too few flights to score (111)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (95)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (86)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (101)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (96)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (84)
- March 2025: 73.0% from 123 flights
- April 2025: too few flights to score (102)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (94)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (92)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (90)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (92)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (90)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (102)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (101)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (88)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (100)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (94)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (93)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (96)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.8% against 82.7% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,614 MSP → MIA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed