Route profile
MIA→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Miami to Minneapolis, 1,501 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 28% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,614 flights. How this is calculated
MIA → MSP arrives on time 73.8% of the time; the return trip, MSP → MIA, arrives on time 81.5% of the time, a 7.6-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MIA → MSP spends 28.7 minutes on the ground on a 1,501-mile trip: 22.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MIA and 6.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MIA to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MIA to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 AM: 92.3% arrive on time, 4.2 points ahead of the 88.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.5 points.
Saturday is the day MIA to MSP slips furthest against routes of similar length, 70.5% on time where they average 78.8%, 8.3 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 8.6 points.
In March, MIA to MSP runs 14.1 points below routes of similar length, 64.4% on time to 78.5%. Against all other routes the gap is 13.5 points.
November is kinder to MIA to MSP than to routes of similar length: 87.9% on time against 83.0%, 4.9 points better.
American Airlines’ flights on MIA to MSP arrive on time 65.7% of the time, 9.4 points below the 75.1% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 9.4 points.
MIA to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 AM departures | 92.3% | routes of similar length | 88.1% | +4.2 pts | 377 here, 126,724 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 70.5% | routes of similar length | 78.8% | −8.3 pts | 543 here, 196,148 there |
| Month: March | 64.4% | routes of similar length | 78.5% | −14.1 pts | 357 here, 124,532 there |
| Month: November | 87.9% | routes of similar length | 83.0% | +4.9 pts | 264 here, 117,706 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 65.7% | routes of similar length | 75.1% | −9.4 pts | 1,126 here, 270,860 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,501 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
59 min late
against a median of 4 min early
MIA → MSP has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth are 63 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 3,614 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from MIA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 42% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 18% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.9% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.3% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.64% of the time and diverts 0.25% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,582 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 59 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,614 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MIA → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.7% of the time, against 66.2% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 25.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 90.8% on time from 275 flights
- 7 AM: 92.3% on time from 379 flights
- 8 AM to 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 72.1% on time from 1,130 flights
- 3 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 72.5% on time from 320 flights
- 7 PM: 66.7% on time from 460 flights
- 8 PM: 66.7% on time from 206 flights
- 9 PM: 66.2% on time from 597 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MIA → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MIA → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 2,331 | 78.7% | 0.56% | -6 min | 8.6% |
| American Airlines | 1,137 | 65.7% | 0.70% | 0 min | 12.8% |
Delta Air Lines flew 67.2% of the 3,468 flights listed.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 13.0 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA458 American Airlines | 9:05 PM | 602 | 67.2% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 67.4%
- Feb: 73.3%
- Mar: 64.4%
- Apr: 75.3%
- May: 74.3%
- Jun: 75.3%
- Jul: 70.7%
- Aug: 68.7%
- Sep: 81.3%
- Oct: 83.0%
- Nov: 87.9%
- Dec: 72.3%
March is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 23.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (92)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (84)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (54)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (82)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (88)
- December 2023: 78.3% from 129 flights
- January 2024: 68.6% from 158 flights
- February 2024: 75.8% from 128 flights
- March 2024: 65.0% from 144 flights
- April 2024: too few flights to score (112)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (94)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (86)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (101)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (97)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (84)
- March 2025: 61.8% from 123 flights
- April 2025: too few flights to score (102)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (94)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (92)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (92)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (89)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (102)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (100)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (88)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (100)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (94)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (93)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (96)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 72.1% against 75.8% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.7 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,614 MIA → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed