Route profile
MSP→BWI
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Baltimore, 936 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 77% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 4,427 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSP → BWI arrives on time 81.3% of the time; the return trip, BWI → MSP, arrives on time 80.8% of the time.
MSP → BWI spends 23.8 minutes on the ground on a 936-mile trip: 16.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 7.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at BWI.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to BWI differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to BWI struggles most at 6 PM: 51.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 16.8 points behind the 67.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 17.5 points.
MSP to BWI is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 79.9% arrive on time, 13.5 points ahead of the 66.4% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.5 points.
MSP to BWI holds up on Tuesdays better than routes of similar length do: 86.0% on time to their 81.0%, a 5 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 4.4 points.
November is kinder to MSP to BWI than to routes of similar length: 91.5% on time against 83.3%, 8.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 8.1 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on MSP to BWI than on its routes of similar length: 79.1% on time here, 76.2% there, 2.9 points apart.
MSP to BWI against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 51.1% | routes of similar length | 67.9% | −16.8 pts | 174 here, 187,779 there |
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 79.9% | routes of similar length | 66.4% | +13.5 pts | 851 here, 146,579 there |
| Weekday: Tuesday | 86.0% | routes of similar length | 81.0% | +5.0 pts | 641 here, 400,706 there |
| Month: November | 91.5% | routes of similar length | 83.3% | +8.2 pts | 330 here, 239,118 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 79.1% | routes of similar length | 76.2% | +2.9 pts | 1,580 here, 765,117 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 936 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
34 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 4,427 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BWI after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 18% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.77% of the time and diverts 0.34% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 4,378 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 34 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 4,427 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → BWI flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.1% of the time, against 67.5% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 23.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 92.4% on time from 175 flights
- 6 AM: 91.8% on time from 414 flights
- 7 AM: 90.1% on time from 612 flights
- 8 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 86.8% on time from 548 flights
- 11 AM to 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 84.4% on time from 193 flights
- 2 PM: 77.2% on time from 438 flights
- 3 PM: 77.6% on time from 150 flights
- 4 PM: 60.1% on time from 175 flights
- 5 PM: 66.3% on time from 184 flights
- 6 PM: 51.1% on time from 180 flights
- 7 PM: 76.6% on time from 260 flights
- 8 PM: 79.9% on time from 856 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MSP → BWI runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → BWI. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 2,821 | 82.6% | 0.60% | -9 min | 5.5% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,603 | 79.1% | 1.06% | -3 min | 5.3% |
Delta Air Lines flew 63.8% of the 4,424 flights listed.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 3.5 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2918 Delta Air Lines | 8:20 PM | 783 | 77.2% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.4%
- Feb: 89.3%
- Mar: 74.5%
- Apr: 84.0%
- May: 80.3%
- Jun: 75.8%
- Jul: 68.6%
- Aug: 81.6%
- Sep: 89.1%
- Oct: 89.1%
- Nov: 91.5%
- Dec: 80.5%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 22.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 73.4% from 145 flights
- August 2023: 83.1% from 154 flights
- September 2023: 85.7% from 128 flights
- October 2023: 90.8% from 142 flights
- November 2023: too few flights to score (112)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (107)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (81)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (101)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (112)
- June 2024: 68.6% from 159 flights
- July 2024: 64.7% from 172 flights
- August 2024: 80.3% from 159 flights
- September 2024: 94.6% from 149 flights
- October 2024: 91.0% from 133 flights
- November 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (118)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (78)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (99)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (117)
- June 2025: 78.2% from 136 flights
- July 2025: 65.0% from 143 flights
- August 2025: 81.3% from 135 flights
- September 2025: 86.0% from 129 flights
- October 2025: 85.2% from 128 flights
- November 2025: too few flights to score (109)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (117)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (90)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (78)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (106)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (113)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (118)
- June 2026: 81.8% from 140 flights
- July 2026: 72.3% from 146 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 81.5% against 82.1% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 4,427 MSP → BWI flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed