Route profile
BWI→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Baltimore to Minneapolis, 936 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 66% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 4,422 flights. How this is calculated
BWI → MSP arrives on time 80.8% of the time; the return trip, MSP → BWI, arrives on time 81.3% of the time.
BWI → MSP spends 21.0 minutes on the ground on a 936-mile trip: 15.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BWI and 5.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 99% of 4,023 comparable routes.
90.7% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 53.1% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where BWI to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BWI to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 2 PM: 82.9% arrive on time, 9.2 points ahead of the 73.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.3 points.
BWI to MSP struggles most at 9 PM: 57.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 7.9 points behind the 65.7% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.7 points.
BWI to MSP holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 80.0% on time to their 73.9%, a 6.1 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 5.2 points.
February is kinder to BWI to MSP than to routes of similar length: 92.7% on time against 81.2%, 11.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 11.3 points.
Delta Air Lines does better on BWI to MSP than on its routes of similar length: 86.3% on time here, 81.2% there, 5.1 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 4.8 points.
BWI to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 82.9% | routes of similar length | 73.7% | +9.2 pts | 181 here, 181,467 there |
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 57.8% | routes of similar length | 65.7% | −7.9 pts | 161 here, 83,209 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 80.0% | routes of similar length | 73.9% | +6.1 pts | 619 here, 438,074 there |
| Month: February | 92.7% | routes of similar length | 81.2% | +11.5 pts | 233 here, 216,773 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 86.3% | routes of similar length | 81.2% | +5.1 pts | 2,794 here, 390,287 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 936 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
35 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 4,422 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from BWI.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.00% of the time and diverts 0.14% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 4,372 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 35 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 4,422 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BWI → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.7% of the time, against 53.1% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 37.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.5% on time from 1,115 flights
- 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 88.1% on time from 302 flights
- 9 AM: 81.3% on time from 144 flights
- 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 86.4% on time from 539 flights
- 12 PM: 86.7% on time from 204 flights
- 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 82.9% on time from 185 flights
- 3 PM: 78.3% on time from 506 flights
- 4 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 75.6% on time from 275 flights
- 7 PM: 70.5% on time from 454 flights
- 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 57.8% on time from 168 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why BWI → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BWI → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on BWI → MSP, at 41.9%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.7% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 53.1%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 2,821 | 86.3% | 0.78% | -11 min | 5.7% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,599 | 71.1% | 1.38% | -1 min | 6.9% |
Delta Air Lines flew 63.8% of the 4,420 flights listed.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 15.2 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2872 Delta Air Lines | 6:00 AM | 1,061 | 91.5% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Saturday the least, a gap of 6.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.6%
- Feb: 92.7%
- Mar: 79.8%
- Apr: 85.3%
- May: 82.8%
- Jun: 71.7%
- Jul: 65.4%
- Aug: 79.1%
- Sep: 87.1%
- Oct: 86.1%
- Nov: 88.1%
- Dec: 83.5%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 27.3 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 69.0% from 145 flights
- August 2023: 75.2% from 154 flights
- September 2023: 80.8% from 128 flights
- October 2023: 84.4% from 135 flights
- November 2023: too few flights to score (111)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (107)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (81)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (101)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (115)
- June 2024: 63.1% from 160 flights
- July 2024: 65.5% from 172 flights
- August 2024: 76.9% from 158 flights
- September 2024: 93.3% from 149 flights
- October 2024: 89.5% from 133 flights
- November 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (118)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (78)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (99)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (117)
- June 2025: 80.6% from 136 flights
- July 2025: 66.2% from 143 flights
- August 2025: 85.9% from 135 flights
- September 2025: 86.0% from 129 flights
- October 2025: 84.4% from 128 flights
- November 2025: too few flights to score (109)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (117)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (90)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (78)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (106)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (113)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (118)
- June 2026: 73.0% from 140 flights
- July 2026: 60.9% from 146 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 79.7% against 83.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 4,422 BWI → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed