Route profile
MSN→ORD
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Madison to Chicago, 108 miles.
Right now
FlyerIntel does not currently have live operational data for this airport.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 13% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,923 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSN → ORD arrives on time 75.3% of the time; the return trip, ORD → MSN, arrives on time 73.9% of the time.
MSN → ORD spends 38.7 minutes on the ground on a 108-mile trip: 17.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSN and 20.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at ORD.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSN to ORD differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSN to ORD struggles most at 6 PM: 59.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 20.8 points behind the 79.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.6 points.
Friday is the day MSN to ORD slips furthest against routes of similar length, 72.0% on time where they average 81.7%, 9.7 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 4.2 points.
In January, MSN to ORD runs 16.2 points below routes of similar length, 65.9% on time to 82.1%. Against all other routes the gap is 13.2 points.
SkyWest Airlines’ flights on MSN to ORD arrive on time 72.1% of the time, 12.7 points below the 84.8% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 9.2 points.
MSN to ORD against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 59.0% | routes of similar length | 79.8% | −20.8 pts | 568 here, 3,565 there |
| Weekday: Friday | 72.0% | routes of similar length | 81.7% | −9.7 pts | 1,272 here, 7,075 there |
| Month: January | 65.9% | routes of similar length | 82.1% | −16.2 pts | 684 here, 3,803 there |
| Airline: SkyWest Airlines | 72.1% | routes of similar length | 84.8% | −12.7 pts | 2,868 here, 31,540 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 108 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
MSN to ORD in context
This route against MSN and ORD as a whole, against similar routes from MSN, and against its own first year, July 2023 – July 2026.
Leaving MSN, MSN to ORD is on time 75.3% of the time, 7 points worse than the airport’s other departures at MSN (82.3%, from 29,020 flights).
MSN to ORD arrived on time 72.7% of the time in its latest twelve months (August 2025 to July 2026), 6.5 points below the 79.2% of its first twelve (July 2023 to June 2024).
Cancellations rose from 2.29% of scheduled flights (49 of 2,141) in the first twelve months to 3.88% (159 of 4,103) in the latest twelve.
Of the 8,900 flights scheduled in hours with at least 120 flights, 6 AM is the busiest hour with 1,356 (15.2%), 82.4% of them on time, and 7 AM the quietest with 205 (2.3%), 82.3% of them on time.
Airport comparisons take this route’s flights out of the airport total. Length means within 15% of this route’s distance, with at least 3 other routes from the same origin. On-time gaps are stated at 2 points and 2 standard errors, cancellation gaps at 0.5 points and 2 standard errors, and every group needs 750 flights. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSN → ORD flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSN → ORD cancelled 237 of 8,923 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 38. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 67.9% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 55 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 237 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
161 cancellations, 67.9% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
56 cancellations, 23.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
20 cancellations, 8.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
237 coded cancellations were recorded on MSN → ORD; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
56 min late
against a median of 5 min early
MSN → ORD has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 5 min early, but the worst tenth are 61 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 8,923 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at ORD after arriving from MSN.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.4% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.6% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.66% of the time and diverts 0.07% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,680 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 56 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,923 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSN → ORD flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 83.5% of the time, against 60.4% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 23.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 89.9% on time from 690 flights
- 6 AM: 82.4% on time from 1,356 flights
- 7 AM: 82.3% on time from 205 flights
- 8 AM: 80.5% on time from 880 flights
- 9 AM: 80.3% on time from 258 flights
- 10 AM: 83.2% on time from 838 flights
- 11 AM: 74.5% on time from 302 flights
- 12 PM: 72.5% on time from 483 flights
- 1 PM: 78.1% on time from 515 flights
- 2 PM: 75.7% on time from 506 flights
- 3 PM: 70.1% on time from 950 flights
- 4 PM: 66.5% on time from 225 flights
- 5 PM: 58.6% on time from 849 flights
- 6 PM: 59.0% on time from 594 flights
- 7 PM: too few flights to score
- 8 PM: 65.2% on time from 249 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSN → ORD runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSN → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MSN → ORD, at 37.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 83.5% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 60.4%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SkyWest Airlines | 2,966 | 72.1% | 3.20% | -4 min | 12.4% |
| Envoy Air | 2,260 | 76.7% | 2.83% | -7 min | 8.7% |
| United Airlines | 2,045 | 77.2% | 2.00% | -3 min | 6.9% |
| Republic Airways | 1,540 | 79.9% | 1.56% | -10 min | 6.9% |
SkyWest Airlines flew 33.7% of the 8,811 flights listed. SkyWest Airlines cancelled 3.20% of its flights here against 1.56% for Republic Airways.
Republic Airways arrived on time 7.8 percentage points more often than SkyWest Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 6.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 65.9%
- Feb: 80.1%
- Mar: 75.5%
- Apr: 77.2%
- May: 76.9%
- Jun: 76.0%
- Jul: 75.2%
- Aug: 77.0%
- Sep: 79.3%
- Oct: 74.2%
- Nov: 77.6%
- Dec: 67.8%
January is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 14.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 72.7% from 153 flights
- August 2023: 83.8% from 188 flights
- September 2023: 74.7% from 147 flights
- October 2023: 80.4% from 153 flights
- November 2023: 82.8% from 145 flights
- December 2023: 85.6% from 125 flights
- January 2024: 59.7% from 162 flights
- February 2024: 91.3% from 195 flights
- March 2024: 86.0% from 200 flights
- April 2024: 83.0% from 280 flights
- May 2024: 70.6% from 223 flights
- June 2024: 73.6% from 170 flights
- July 2024: 66.2% from 147 flights
- August 2024: 80.0% from 186 flights
- September 2024: 79.4% from 180 flights
- October 2024: 84.4% from 180 flights
- November 2024: 84.2% from 185 flights
- December 2024: 60.8% from 176 flights
- January 2025: 74.4% from 234 flights
- February 2025: 75.0% from 156 flights
- March 2025: 75.2% from 243 flights
- April 2025: 80.1% from 249 flights
- May 2025: 85.0% from 228 flights
- June 2025: 72.2% from 254 flights
- July 2025: 72.8% from 261 flights
- August 2025: 71.3% from 329 flights
- September 2025: 81.3% from 333 flights
- October 2025: 66.3% from 354 flights
- November 2025: 71.7% from 370 flights
- December 2025: 64.3% from 301 flights
- January 2026: 62.4% from 317 flights
- February 2026: 74.6% from 262 flights
- March 2026: 69.0% from 344 flights
- April 2026: 71.5% from 427 flights
- May 2026: 75.8% from 403 flights
- June 2026: 80.1% from 329 flights
- July 2026: 82.2% from 334 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 72.6% against 76.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,923 MSN → ORD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed