Route profile
MKE→EWR
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Milwaukee to Newark, 725 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 25% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,585 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MKE → EWR arrives on time 82.0% of the time; the return trip, EWR → MKE, arrives on time 84.1% of the time, a 2.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MKE → EWR spends 28.3 minutes on the ground on a 725-mile trip: 17.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MKE and 11.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at EWR.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MKE to EWR differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MKE to EWR is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 76.2% arrive on time, 8.9 points ahead of the 67.3% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.6 points.
MKE to EWR holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 80.7% on time to their 74.6%, a 6.1 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 5.9 points.
May is kinder to MKE to EWR than to routes of similar length: 84.3% on time against 73.9%, 10.4 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.1 points.
MKE to EWR against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 76.2% | routes of similar length | 67.3% | +8.9 pts | 625 here, 136,172 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 80.7% | routes of similar length | 74.6% | +6.1 pts | 342 here, 307,313 there |
| Month: May | 84.3% | routes of similar length | 73.9% | +10.4 pts | 172 here, 177,710 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 725 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MKE → EWR flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MKE → EWR cancelled 128 of 2,585 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 20. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 60.9% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 33 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 128 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
78 cancellations, 60.9% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
49 cancellations, 38.3% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
1 cancellation, 0.8% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
128 coded cancellations were recorded on MKE → EWR; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
41 min late
against a median of 15 min early
Percentiles over 2,585 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at EWR after arriving from MKE.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 27% | High risk |
| 45 min | 17% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.4% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 4.95% of the time and diverts 0.23% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,451 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 41 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,585 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MKE → EWR flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.9% of the time, against 69.2% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 21.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.0% on time from 390 flights
- 7 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 91.2% on time from 410 flights
- 11 AM: 79.3% on time from 396 flights
- 12 PM: 86.3% on time from 145 flights
- 1 PM to 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 69.4% on time from 162 flights
- 6 PM: 76.2% on time from 659 flights
- 7 PM: 74.4% on time from 135 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MKE → EWR runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MKE → EWR. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 2,477 | 81.8% | 5.13% | -15 min | 7.4% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| YX3510 Republic Airways | 6:40 PM | 763 | 76.8% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 7.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 84.2%
- Feb: 87.6%
- Mar: 87.0%
- Apr: 89.2%
- May: 84.3%
- Jun: 82.3%
- Jul: 70.0%
- Aug: 82.0%
- Sep: 85.7%
- Oct: 84.8%
- Nov: 78.8%
- Dec: 76.5%
July is historically the weakest month and April the strongest, a spread of 19.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 78.2% against 79.4% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,585 MKE → EWR flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed