Route profile
MKE→DFW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Milwaukee to Dallas–Fort Worth, 853 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 6% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,537 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MKE → DFW arrives on time 72.7% of the time; the return trip, DFW → MKE, arrives on time 65.7% of the time, a 7.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MKE → DFW spends 29.7 minutes on the ground on an 853-mile trip: 14.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MKE and 14.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at DFW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 92% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth run 73 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MKE to DFW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MKE to DFW struggles most at 6 PM: 44.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 22.8 points behind the 67.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 23.8 points.
MKE to DFW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 3 PM: 79.7% arrive on time, 8.6 points ahead of the 71.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7 points.
Monday is the day MKE to DFW slips furthest against routes of similar length, 69.0% on time where they average 76.8%, 7.8 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 8.3 points.
In January, MKE to DFW runs 10.7 points below routes of similar length, 68.1% on time to 78.8%. Against all other routes the gap is 11 points.
MKE to DFW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 44.8% | routes of similar length | 67.6% | −22.8 pts | 192 here, 166,707 there |
| Hour: 3 PM departures | 79.7% | routes of similar length | 71.1% | +8.6 pts | 212 here, 152,934 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 69.0% | routes of similar length | 76.8% | −7.8 pts | 487 here, 386,515 there |
| Month: January | 68.1% | routes of similar length | 78.8% | −10.7 pts | 279 here, 192,666 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 853 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MKE → DFW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MKE → DFW cancelled 91 of 3,537 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 39. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 84.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 46 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 91 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
77 cancellations, 84.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
13 cancellations, 14.3% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
1 cancellation, 1.1% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
91 coded cancellations were recorded on MKE → DFW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
69 min late
against a median of 4 min early
MKE → DFW has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth are 73 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 3,537 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DFW after arriving from MKE.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 42% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 27% | High risk |
| 60 min | 19% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.7% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.57% of the time and diverts 0.59% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,425 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 69 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,537 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MKE → DFW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 80.4% of the time, against 50.2% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 30.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 87.4% on time from 121 flights
- 6 AM: 77.4% on time from 883 flights
- 7 AM: 85.8% on time from 208 flights
- 8 AM to 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 76.0% on time from 663 flights
- 12 PM: 71.2% on time from 336 flights
- 1 PM to 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 79.7% on time from 221 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 57.4% on time from 562 flights
- 6 PM: 44.8% on time from 203 flights
- 7 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MKE → DFW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MKE → DFW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 3,462 | 72.5% | 2.60% | -4 min | 11.7% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA2621 American Airlines | 6:00 AM | 1,122 | 79.7% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 7.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 68.1%
- Feb: 78.5%
- Mar: 70.9%
- Apr: 72.0%
- May: 68.3%
- Jun: 62.6%
- Jul: 63.6%
- Aug: 73.4%
- Sep: 78.7%
- Oct: 80.1%
- Nov: 79.4%
- Dec: 77.0%
June is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 17.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (87)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (87)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (84)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (90)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (92)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (83)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (98)
- August 2024: 82.0% from 130 flights
- September 2024: 80.2% from 132 flights
- October 2024: 85.6% from 132 flights
- November 2024: too few flights to score (108)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (116)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (89)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (90)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (90)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (92)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (88)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (93)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (85)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (93)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (87)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (90)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (90)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.9% against 74.7% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,537 MKE → DFW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed