Route profile
MKE→BWI
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Milwaukee to Baltimore, 641 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 81% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,653 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MKE → BWI arrives on time 84.8% of the time; the return trip, BWI → MKE, arrives on time 74.0% of the time, a 10.7-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MKE → BWI spends 18.4 minutes on the ground on a 641-mile trip: 12.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MKE and 6.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at BWI.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 95% of 4,023 comparable routes.
93.6% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 60.7% for 6–9 PM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MKE to BWI differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MKE to BWI is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 3 PM: 84.4% arrive on time, 10.8 points ahead of the 73.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.7 points.
MKE to BWI struggles most at 6 PM: 59.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 7.3 points behind the 67.2% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.7 points.
MKE to BWI holds up on Fridays better than routes of similar length do: 84.5% on time to their 76.0%, a 8.5 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 8.3 points.
July is kinder to MKE to BWI than to routes of similar length: 80.2% on time against 69.1%, 11.1 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 10.5 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on MKE to BWI than on its routes of similar length: 84.7% on time here, 77.6% there, 7.1 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 7.3 points.
MKE to BWI against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 3 PM departures | 84.4% | routes of similar length | 73.6% | +10.8 pts | 122 here, 127,869 there |
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 59.9% | routes of similar length | 67.2% | −7.3 pts | 267 here, 139,953 there |
| Weekday: Friday | 84.5% | routes of similar length | 76.0% | +8.5 pts | 407 here, 325,025 there |
| Month: July | 80.2% | routes of similar length | 69.1% | +11.1 pts | 343 here, 244,160 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 84.7% | routes of similar length | 77.6% | +7.1 pts | 2,586 here, 524,090 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 641 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
27 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 2,653 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BWI after arriving from MKE.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 9.2% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.8% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.24% of the time and diverts 0.30% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,612 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 27 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,653 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MKE → BWI flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 93.6% of the time, against 60.7% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 32.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 93.4% on time from 168 flights
- 6 AM: 93.5% on time from 603 flights
- 7 AM: 94.0% on time from 251 flights
- 8 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 89.8% on time from 257 flights
- 1 PM to 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 84.4% on time from 125 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 71.8% on time from 359 flights
- 6 PM: 59.9% on time from 280 flights
- 7 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MKE → BWI runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MKE → BWI. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MKE → BWI, at 52.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 93.6% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 60.7%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 2,626 | 84.7% | 1.22% | -7 min | 4.9% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.6%
- Feb: 88.4%
- Mar: 87.9%
- Apr: 87.6%
- May: 79.6%
- Jun: 79.7%
- Jul: 80.2%
- Aug: 82.8%
- Sep: 91.0%
- Oct: 90.9%
- Nov: 87.1%
- Dec: 82.2%
May is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 11.4 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 85.1% against 86.3% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,653 MKE → BWI flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed