Route profile
BWI→MKE
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Baltimore to Milwaukee, 641 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 36% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,658 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
BWI → MKE arrives on time 74.0% of the time; the return trip, MKE → BWI, arrives on time 84.8% of the time, a 10.7-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
BWI → MKE spends 19.5 minutes on the ground on a 641-mile trip: 15.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BWI and 4.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at MKE.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 97% of 3,357 comparable routes.
88.4% on time in a typical February, against 60.6% in July.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where BWI to MKE differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BWI to MKE struggles most at 10 PM: 53.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 15.2 points behind the 68.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 18.1 points.
BWI to MKE is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 74.9% arrive on time, 7.5 points ahead of the 67.4% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
Saturday is the day BWI to MKE slips furthest against routes of similar length, 70.1% on time where they average 79.4%, 9.3 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 9 points.
In August, BWI to MKE runs 11 points below routes of similar length, 65.4% on time to 76.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 11.1 points.
February is kinder to BWI to MKE than to routes of similar length: 88.4% on time against 81.7%, 6.7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 7 points.
BWI to MKE against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 10 PM departures | 53.6% | routes of similar length | 68.8% | −15.2 pts | 220 here, 49,174 there |
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 74.9% | routes of similar length | 67.4% | +7.5 pts | 167 here, 101,514 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 70.1% | routes of similar length | 79.4% | −9.3 pts | 304 here, 266,522 there |
| Month: August | 65.4% | routes of similar length | 76.4% | −11.0 pts | 266 here, 182,292 there |
| Month: February | 88.4% | routes of similar length | 81.7% | +6.7 pts | 138 here, 153,124 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 641 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
50 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 2,658 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MKE after arriving from BWI.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 45% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 7.5% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.24% of the time and diverts 0.08% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,623 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 50 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,658 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BWI → MKE flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.4% of the time, against 58.1% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 33.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 92.0% on time from 405 flights
- 9 AM: 85.7% on time from 301 flights
- 10 AM: 87.0% on time from 239 flights
- 11 AM to 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 80.1% on time from 148 flights
- 3 PM: 77.8% on time from 180 flights
- 4 PM to 6 PM: too few flights to score
- 7 PM: 65.6% on time from 133 flights
- 8 PM: 74.9% on time from 172 flights
- 9 PM: 60.5% on time from 412 flights
- 10 PM: 53.6% on time from 227 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why BWI → MKE runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BWI → MKE. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 2,631 | 74.0% | 1.22% | -2 min | 7.8% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 13.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 83.1%
- Feb: 88.4%
- Mar: 77.0%
- Apr: 72.3%
- May: 68.6%
- Jun: 67.3%
- Jul: 60.6%
- Aug: 65.4%
- Sep: 84.8%
- Oct: 82.0%
- Nov: 82.0%
- Dec: 72.8%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 27.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.2% against 77.0% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,658 BWI → MKE flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed