Route profile
MIA→SAN
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Miami to San Diego, 2,267 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 16% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 1,746 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MIA → SAN arrives on time 68.6% of the time; the return trip, SAN → MIA, arrives on time 84.3% of the time, a 15.6-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MIA → SAN spends 31.3 minutes on the ground on a 2,267-mile trip: 22.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MIA and 8.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at SAN.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 94% of 3,357 comparable routes.
79.3% on time in a typical November, against 53.8% in May.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MIA to SAN differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MIA to SAN struggles most at 7 PM: 59.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 8.6 points behind the 68.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.9 points.
MIA to SAN is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 9 AM: 89.7% arrive on time, 8.4 points ahead of the 81.3% those routes manage at that hour.
Thursday is the day MIA to SAN slips furthest against routes of similar length, 62.0% on time where they average 77.7%, 15.7 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 14.8 points.
In May, MIA to SAN runs 24 points below routes of similar length, 53.8% on time to 77.8%. Against all other routes the gap is 21.5 points.
American Airlines’ flights on MIA to SAN arrive on time 68.6% of the time, 10.2 points below the 78.8% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 6.5 points.
MIA to SAN against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 59.9% | routes of similar length | 68.5% | −8.6 pts | 675 here, 47,815 there |
| Hour: 9 AM departures | 89.7% | routes of similar length | 81.3% | +8.4 pts | 146 here, 81,621 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 62.0% | routes of similar length | 77.7% | −15.7 pts | 245 here, 173,433 there |
| Month: May | 53.8% | routes of similar length | 77.8% | −24.0 pts | 132 here, 103,007 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 68.6% | routes of similar length | 78.8% | −10.2 pts | 1,715 here, 243,179 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,267 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
59 min late
against a median of 0 min early
Percentiles over 1,746 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SAN after arriving from MIA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 49% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 60 min | 21% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.1% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.97% of the time and diverts 0.80% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 1,715 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 59 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 1,746 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MIA → SAN flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 89.7% of the time, against 60.4% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 29.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 89.1% on time from 186 flights
- 9 AM: 89.7% on time from 148 flights
- 10 AM to 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 71.3% on time from 219 flights
- 5 PM to 6 PM: too few flights to score
- 7 PM: 59.9% on time from 684 flights
- 8 PM: 61.8% on time from 257 flights
- 9 PM: 72.8% on time from 180 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MIA → SAN runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MIA → SAN. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MIA → SAN, at 37.0%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 9 AM–12 PM departures arrived on time 89.7% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 60.4%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 1,746 | 68.6% | 0.97% | 0 min | 9.8% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA2578 American Airlines | 7:30 PM | 647 | 62.4% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 11.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 68.3%
- Feb: 74.7%
- Mar: 70.2%
- Apr: 76.0%
- May: 53.8%
- Jun: 59.8%
- Jul: 61.0%
- Aug to Oct: no data
- Nov: 79.3%
- Dec: 74.4%
May is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 25.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.5% against 70.6% in the 12 months before — improving by 4.9 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 1,746 MIA → SAN flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed