Route profile
MDW→RDU
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Raleigh–Durham, 632 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 57% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,282 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MDW → RDU arrives on time 78.3% of the time; the return trip, RDU → MDW, arrives on time 79.4% of the time.
MDW → RDU spends 19.4 minutes on the ground on a 632-mile trip: 14.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 4.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at RDU.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 96% of 3,357 comparable routes.
88.9% on time in a typical February, against 62.5% in July.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to RDU differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to RDU struggles most at 8 PM: 61.4% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 6.4 points behind the 67.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour.
MDW to RDU is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 AM: 91.3% arrive on time, 5 points ahead of the 86.3% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.4 points.
February is kinder to MDW to RDU than to routes of similar length: 88.9% on time against 81.7%, 7.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
In July, MDW to RDU runs 6.9 points below routes of similar length, 62.5% on time to 69.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.2 points.
MDW to RDU against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 61.4% | routes of similar length | 67.8% | −6.4 pts | 223 here, 93,912 there |
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 91.3% | routes of similar length | 86.3% | +5.0 pts | 496 here, 140,418 there |
| Month: February | 88.9% | routes of similar length | 81.7% | +7.2 pts | 190 here, 144,292 there |
| Month: July | 62.5% | routes of similar length | 69.4% | −6.9 pts | 456 here, 230,275 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 632 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
36 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 3,282 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at RDU after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 42% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.5% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 2.8% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.43% of the time and diverts 0.12% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,231 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 36 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,282 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → RDU flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.0% of the time, against 68.8% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 22.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 90.7% on time from 205 flights
- 8 AM: 91.3% on time from 502 flights
- 9 AM: 88.1% on time from 239 flights
- 10 AM: 87.3% on time from 166 flights
- 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 77.6% on time from 172 flights
- 1 PM: 80.2% on time from 401 flights
- 2 PM: 72.8% on time from 192 flights
- 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 74.1% on time from 136 flights
- 5 PM: 67.2% on time from 142 flights
- 6 PM: 72.3% on time from 416 flights
- 7 PM: 69.8% on time from 285 flights
- 8 PM: 61.4% on time from 226 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MDW → RDU runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → RDU. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → RDU, at 50.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 68.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 3,143 | 78.6% | 1.37% | -3 min | 5.5% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 6.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 79.8%
- Feb: 88.9%
- Mar: 79.3%
- Apr: 83.6%
- May: 80.8%
- Jun: 71.2%
- Jul: 62.5%
- Aug: 76.8%
- Sep: 84.6%
- Oct: 83.0%
- Nov: 85.9%
- Dec: 80.1%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 26.4 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 50.4% from 124 flights
- August 2023: 75.4% from 120 flights
- September 2023: too few flights to score (101)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (105)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (95)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (90)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (86)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (79)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (79)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (99)
- June 2024: 71.5% from 123 flights
- July 2024: 65.9% from 133 flights
- August 2024: too few flights to score (105)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (80)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (86)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (68)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (56)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (62)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (65)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (66)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (110)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (90)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (80)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (85)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (89)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (67)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (56)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (66)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (74)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (80)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (88)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (92)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 80.8% against 80.5% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,282 MDW → RDU flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed