Route profile
MDW→DAL
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Dallas, 793 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 51% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,912 flights. How this is calculated
MDW → DAL arrives on time 77.8% of the time; the return trip, DAL → MDW, arrives on time 74.9% of the time, a 2.9-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MDW → DAL spends 19.1 minutes on the ground on a 793-mile trip: 13.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 5.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at DAL.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 97% of 4,023 comparable routes.
91.8% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 56.8% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to DAL differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to DAL struggles most at 9 PM: 56.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 10.8 points behind the 67.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.7 points.
MDW to DAL is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 AM: 95.9% arrive on time, 5.4 points ahead of the 90.5% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
February is kinder to MDW to DAL than to routes of similar length: 87.8% on time against 82.4%, 5.4 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.4 points.
In June, MDW to DAL runs 5.3 points below routes of similar length, 66.5% on time to 71.8%. Against all other routes the gap is 6.2 points.
MDW to DAL against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 56.8% | routes of similar length | 67.6% | −10.8 pts | 125 here, 64,442 there |
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 95.9% | routes of similar length | 90.5% | +5.4 pts | 365 here, 159,035 there |
| Month: February | 87.8% | routes of similar length | 82.4% | +5.4 pts | 417 here, 154,409 there |
| Month: June | 66.5% | routes of similar length | 71.8% | −5.3 pts | 576 here, 183,271 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 793 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MDW → DAL flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MDW → DAL cancelled 105 of 6,912 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 66. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 81.9% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 80 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 105 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
86 cancellations, 81.9% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
17 cancellations, 16.2% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
2 cancellations, 1.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
105 coded cancellations were recorded on MDW → DAL; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
41 min late
against a median of 5 min early
Percentiles over 6,912 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DAL after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.52% of the time and diverts 0.48% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,774 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 41 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,912 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → DAL flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.8% of the time, against 56.8% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 35.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 94.9% on time from 659 flights
- 6 AM: 95.9% on time from 374 flights
- 7 AM: 88.1% on time from 509 flights
- 8 AM: 88.5% on time from 515 flights
- 9 AM: 85.5% on time from 356 flights
- 10 AM: 80.6% on time from 357 flights
- 11 AM: 76.9% on time from 302 flights
- 12 PM: 80.0% on time from 439 flights
- 1 PM: 78.3% on time from 354 flights
- 2 PM: 75.5% on time from 263 flights
- 3 PM: 71.6% on time from 408 flights
- 4 PM: 71.7% on time from 352 flights
- 5 PM: 63.2% on time from 228 flights
- 6 PM: 67.0% on time from 508 flights
- 7 PM: 66.7% on time from 405 flights
- 8 PM: 61.6% on time from 756 flights
- 9 PM: 56.8% on time from 127 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MDW → DAL runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → DAL. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → DAL, at 39.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.8% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 56.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 6,912 | 77.8% | 1.52% | -5 min | 6.4% |
Other ways to fly Chicago to Dallas–Fort Worth
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→DFW Chicago to Dallas–Fort Worth | 20,459 | 73.0% | 1.95% | -5 min | 48 |
| MDW→DAL this route Chicago to Dallas | 6,912 | 77.8% | 1.52% | -5 min | 66 |
MDW → DAL is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 77.8% on time, against 73.0% for ORD → DFW.
Flying to DAL from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for DAL, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.7%
- Feb: 87.8%
- Mar: 82.2%
- Apr: 79.3%
- May: 70.7%
- Jun: 66.5%
- Jul: 68.2%
- Aug: 78.7%
- Sep: 79.3%
- Oct: 84.1%
- Nov: 83.2%
- Dec: 79.5%
June is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 21.3 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 66.2% from 205 flights
- August 2023: 78.7% from 211 flights
- September 2023: 75.8% from 195 flights
- October 2023: 82.6% from 209 flights
- November 2023: 85.9% from 199 flights
- December 2023: 88.7% from 208 flights
- January 2024: 76.2% from 166 flights
- February 2024: 90.3% from 145 flights
- March 2024: 81.3% from 174 flights
- April 2024: 75.3% from 182 flights
- May 2024: 61.5% from 191 flights
- June 2024: 71.5% from 194 flights
- July 2024: 67.3% from 201 flights
- August 2024: 77.9% from 199 flights
- September 2024: 81.9% from 193 flights
- October 2024: 88.7% from 195 flights
- November 2024: 82.7% from 189 flights
- December 2024: 75.4% from 194 flights
- January 2025: 84.5% from 160 flights
- February 2025: 87.7% from 138 flights
- March 2025: 83.7% from 181 flights
- April 2025: 82.4% from 195 flights
- May 2025: 76.8% from 204 flights
- June 2025: 63.6% from 197 flights
- July 2025: 69.4% from 202 flights
- August 2025: 79.6% from 193 flights
- September 2025: 80.3% from 190 flights
- October 2025: 81.3% from 195 flights
- November 2025: 80.7% from 178 flights
- December 2025: 73.7% from 190 flights
- January 2026: 84.5% from 156 flights
- February 2026: 85.1% from 135 flights
- March 2026: 81.4% from 171 flights
- April 2026: 80.4% from 172 flights
- May 2026: 73.5% from 176 flights
- June 2026: 64.4% from 195 flights
- July 2026: 69.6% from 234 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.4% against 79.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 1.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,912 MDW → DAL flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed