Route profile
MCO→BUF
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Orlando to Buffalo, 1,011 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 24% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,430 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MCO → BUF arrives on time 73.0% of the time; the return trip, BUF → MCO, arrives on time 78.8% of the time, a 5.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MCO → BUF spends 24.3 minutes on the ground on a 1,011-mile trip: 19.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 4.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at BUF.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability on this route has fallen unusually sharply over the past year, a bigger swing than 94% of 5,368 comparable routes.
66.8% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 78.1% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), a change of 11.3 points.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MCO to BUF differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MCO to BUF struggles most at 8 PM: 54.2% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 11.9 points behind the 66.1% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.2 points.
MCO to BUF is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 AM: 95.4% arrive on time, 4.8 points ahead of the 90.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.6 points.
Sunday is the day MCO to BUF slips furthest against routes of similar length, 66.1% on time where they average 73.5%, 7.4 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 8.7 points.
In October, MCO to BUF runs 8.1 points below routes of similar length, 74.6% on time to 82.7%. Against all other routes the gap is 8.4 points.
Frontier Airlines does better on MCO to BUF than on its routes of similar length: 79.0% on time here, 73.0% there, 6 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 7.8 points.
MCO to BUF against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 54.2% | routes of similar length | 66.1% | −11.9 pts | 421 here, 147,294 there |
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 95.4% | routes of similar length | 90.6% | +4.8 pts | 241 here, 220,383 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 66.1% | routes of similar length | 73.5% | −7.4 pts | 805 here, 435,706 there |
| Month: October | 74.6% | routes of similar length | 82.7% | −8.1 pts | 390 here, 242,910 there |
| Airline: Frontier Airlines | 79.0% | routes of similar length | 73.0% | +6.0 pts | 1,112 here, 147,764 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,011 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MCO → BUF flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MCO → BUF cancelled 75 of 5,430 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 72. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 66.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 109 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 75 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
50 cancellations, 66.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
20 cancellations, 26.7% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
5 cancellations, 6.7% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
75 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → BUF; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
57 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 5,430 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BUF after arriving from MCO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 45% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 26% | High risk |
| 60 min | 17% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.4% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.5% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.38% of the time and diverts 0.26% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,341 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 57 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,430 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MCO → BUF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.6% of the time, against 61.2% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 29.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 95.4% on time from 248 flights
- 7 AM: 91.3% on time from 516 flights
- 8 AM: 86.9% on time from 506 flights
- 9 AM: 81.3% on time from 334 flights
- 10 AM: 83.3% on time from 206 flights
- 11 AM: 70.7% on time from 278 flights
- 12 PM: 71.2% on time from 225 flights
- 1 PM: 70.2% on time from 308 flights
- 2 PM: 69.2% on time from 310 flights
- 3 PM: 65.3% on time from 299 flights
- 4 PM: 64.9% on time from 518 flights
- 5 PM: 62.6% on time from 256 flights
- 6 PM: 70.3% on time from 376 flights
- 7 PM: 60.4% on time from 430 flights
- 8 PM: 54.2% on time from 426 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MCO → BUF runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → BUF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → BUF, at 48.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.6% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 61.2%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 2,809 | 73.0% | 1.10% | 0 min | 7.6% |
| JetBlue | 1,484 | 68.5% | 1.48% | -1 min | 13.6% |
| Frontier Airlines | 1,137 | 79.0% | 1.93% | -9 min | 9.4% |
Southwest Airlines flew 51.7% of the 5,430 flights listed.
Frontier Airlines arrived on time 10.5 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| B61586 JetBlue | 2:59 PM | 1,121 | 66.4% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 14.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.2%
- Feb: 75.9%
- Mar: 68.4%
- Apr: 75.0%
- May: 72.3%
- Jun: 72.2%
- Jul: 62.2%
- Aug: 66.8%
- Sep: 79.9%
- Oct: 74.6%
- Nov: 80.9%
- Dec: 71.6%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 18.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (105)
- August 2023: 66.7% from 120 flights
- September 2023: 74.0% from 131 flights
- October 2023: 76.0% from 146 flights
- November 2023: 85.3% from 156 flights
- December 2023: 78.0% from 151 flights
- January 2024: 82.4% from 144 flights
- February 2024: 81.3% from 152 flights
- March 2024: 66.7% from 190 flights
- April 2024: 78.1% from 155 flights
- May 2024: 70.6% from 144 flights
- June 2024: too few flights to score (98)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- August 2024: 63.1% from 131 flights
- September 2024: 84.8% from 125 flights
- October 2024: 81.8% from 120 flights
- November 2024: 82.7% from 133 flights
- December 2024: 73.5% from 162 flights
- January 2025: 81.5% from 173 flights
- February 2025: 81.9% from 180 flights
- March 2025: 76.3% from 212 flights
- April 2025: 81.6% from 207 flights
- May 2025: 75.5% from 184 flights
- June 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (117)
- August 2025: 70.2% from 151 flights
- September 2025: too few flights to score (118)
- October 2025: 67.2% from 134 flights
- November 2025: 75.2% from 158 flights
- December 2025: 64.1% from 174 flights
- January 2026: 67.4% from 143 flights
- February 2026: 63.3% from 154 flights
- March 2026: 60.6% from 184 flights
- April 2026: 63.9% from 169 flights
- May 2026: 70.0% from 153 flights
- June 2026: too few flights to score (116)
- July 2026: 56.4% from 136 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 66.8% against 78.1% in the 12 months before — declining by 11.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,430 MCO → BUF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed