Flight profile · JetBlue
B61586
Orlando (MCO) to Buffalo (BUF) · scheduled 2:59 PM – 5:42 PM
How B61586 performs
1,121 operations, July 2023 – July 2026.
B61586 arrived on time 66.4% of the time, against 73.0% for all MCO → BUF flights, so this departure is 6.6 percentage points worse than the route as a whole. Against JetBlue’s own flights on this route it is 2.1 points worse.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · 1,121 operations, July 2023 – July 2026 · If B61586 is cancelled or significantly changed, DOT’s automatic refund rule may entitle you to your money back. The refund checker walks through eligibility.
What stands out
How B61586 compares to other flight numbers, not just to itself.
Which day you fly matters unusually much here, a wider weekday spread than 100% of 1,710 comparable flight numbers.
79.5% on time on a typical Wednesday, against 54.1% on a Sunday.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · The one thing about this specific departure that ranks most extreme against every other published flight number, out of everything FlyerIntel checks — shown only when something clears a real statistical bar, not for every flight.
Where B61586 is right now
A live reading, only if you ask for it. It is not part of the reliability record above.
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Against the rest of the route
| Flight or route | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B61586 | 66.4% | 1.34% | 0 min | 15.3% | 1,121 |
| JetBlue on MCO → BUF | 68.5% | 1.48% | -1 min | 13.6% | 1,484 |
| All MCO → BUF flights | 73.0% | 1.38% | -2 min | 9.6% | 5,430 |
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026
Why B61586 runs late
Where US DOT attributed the delay minutes on this flight.
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for B61586 on MCO → BUF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
Does a late aircraft delay this flight?
How often the plane that flies B61586 comes in late, and what that does to the departure.
When the aircraft came in 15 or more minutes late, B61586 pushed back an average of 56 minutes late; when it came in on time or early, an average of 6 minutes late.
Each departure is matched to the flight the same aircraft flew into MCO just before it, using the tail number in the DOT file, 868 of 1,106 departures in all. A departure is left out when that flight is unknown, was cancelled or diverted, or the aircraft had sat for more than 12 hours. A flight the airline cancelled never left and is not in the count, and one flown by a substitute aircraft is matched to the aircraft that flew it, not to the one first planned.
Against the network at the same turn length
| Share of departures | Inbound landed 15+ late | Left 15+ late after a late inbound | Left 15+ late after an on-time inbound |
|---|---|---|---|
| B61586 | 25% | 70% | 18% |
| Network, same turn | 17% | 68% | 9% |
The schedule leaves a normal turn: enough time to clean and board if the aircraft is on time, little to spare if it is not.
The network row is every flight with a scheduled turn of 60 to 89 minutes. How often B61586’s aircraft landed 15 or more minutes late is higher than the network’s and, once the aircraft was late, how often B61586 left 15 or more minutes late is about the same as the network’s.
More: Which Flight Numbers Pay for a Late Aircraft lists the flight numbers that pass a late aircraft on.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
From pushback to gate
When it leaves MCO late, does that still matter by the time it reaches BUF?
On arrival at BUF, B61586 spends 5.2 min taxiing from touchdown to the gate — ground time a connecting passenger sits through before they can even leave the aircraft, on top of however late the flight itself ran. That is about what any arrival at BUF spends on the ground before reaching the gate.
Departure delay is averaged over every pushback and arrival delay over every completed arrival, so the two counts differ by the flights that never reached BUF. Taxi-out is gate to wheels up and sits inside the scheduled block rather than on top of it; the comparison is 26,612 departures from MCO scheduled in the clock hour B61586 most often leaves in. Taxi-in is landing to gate, compared against every arrival FlyerIntel has on file at BUF (65,593 flights), not just B61586’s own. More on taxi time.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026
The hour it leaves MCO
Part of any flight’s record belongs to the clock rather than to the flight. B61586 has one departure time, so this is what that time is worth.
On-time arrival rate. 26,612 departures from MCO are scheduled in the 2 PM–3 PM hour over the period, against 498,221 across the whole day.
B61586 is scheduled out of MCO at 2:59 PM, in the 2 PM–3 PM bank. Departures from MCO in that hour arrive on time 71.1% of the time against 74.8% across the airport’s whole day — the slot alone is worth 3.7 points worse before anything about this particular flight is considered.
The two airport figures cover every departure from MCO to every destination, so they describe the slot rather than this journey — the like-for-like comparison against the route is above. Hours are scheduled local, and a number whose schedule moved between banks inside the period has no single hour and is not described here at all. Why the hour matters.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Hours below 120 departures are not scored.
By day of week
Does B61586 run worse on particular days?
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 25.4 percentage points.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Days with fewer than 120 operations are not scored.
When it goes wrong
The average describes a usual day. This is the day that ruins a connection.
87 min late
against a median of 0 min early
B61586 has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 0 min early, but the worst tenth are 87 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 1,121 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 1,121 records of B61586 operating MCO → BUF, published by the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. A flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after schedule. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and reported separately. Flight numbers are resolved as carrier plus number plus route, because the same number serves different routes over time.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: Most and Least Reliable Flight Numbers · The Delay You Inherit · Making Up Time in the Air
Analysis last recomputed