Route profile
JFK→ORD
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New York to Chicago, 740 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 6% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,266 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
JFK → ORD arrives on time 76.3% of the time; the return trip, ORD → JFK, arrives on time 73.5% of the time, a 2.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
JFK → ORD spends 44.5 minutes on the ground on a 740-mile trip: 27.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at JFK and 17.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at ORD.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 93% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 8 min early, but the worst tenth run 74 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where JFK to ORD differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
JFK to ORD struggles most at 2 PM: 64.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 10.5 points behind the 74.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.6 points.
JFK to ORD is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 75.3% arrive on time, 7.6 points ahead of the 67.7% those routes manage at that hour.
Saturday is the day JFK to ORD slips furthest against routes of similar length, 74.8% on time where they average 79.0%, 4.2 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 4.3 points.
In January, JFK to ORD runs 5.3 points below routes of similar length, 74.1% on time to 79.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 5 points.
SkyWest Airlines’ flights on JFK to ORD arrive on time 77.9% of the time, 4.2 points below the 82.1% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 3.4 points.
JFK to ORD against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 64.0% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | −10.5 pts | 317 here, 121,147 there |
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 75.3% | routes of similar length | 67.7% | +7.6 pts | 182 here, 135,810 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 74.8% | routes of similar length | 79.0% | −4.2 pts | 992 here, 254,260 there |
| Month: January | 74.1% | routes of similar length | 79.4% | −5.3 pts | 499 here, 146,702 there |
| Airline: SkyWest Airlines | 77.9% | routes of similar length | 82.1% | −4.2 pts | 1,639 here, 100,538 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 740 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why JFK → ORD flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
JFK → ORD cancelled 260 of 7,266 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 28. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 53.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 52 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 260 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
139 cancellations, 53.5% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
87 cancellations, 33.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
34 cancellations, 13.1% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
260 coded cancellations were recorded on JFK → ORD; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
66 min late
against a median of 8 min early
JFK → ORD has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 8 min early, but the worst tenth are 74 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 7,266 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at ORD after arriving from JFK.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 37% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 17% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.6% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 3.58% of the time and diverts 0.32% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,983 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 66 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,266 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
JFK → ORD flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 85.4% of the time, against 65.2% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 20.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 79.3% on time from 583 flights
- 8 AM: 85.2% on time from 1,185 flights
- 9 AM: 86.1% on time from 684 flights
- 10 AM: 83.9% on time from 176 flights
- 11 AM: 85.0% on time from 633 flights
- 12 PM: 82.7% on time from 257 flights
- 1 PM: 80.3% on time from 142 flights
- 2 PM: 64.0% on time from 336 flights
- 3 PM: 71.1% on time from 1,335 flights
- 4 PM: 68.6% on time from 386 flights
- 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 75.3% on time from 191 flights
- 7 PM: 65.1% on time from 946 flights
- 8 PM: 56.9% on time from 228 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why JFK → ORD runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for JFK → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 2,094 | 77.5% | 2.82% | -11 min | 11.5% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 1,710 | 77.9% | 3.92% | -8 min | 10.3% |
| JetBlue | 1,696 | 70.7% | 3.54% | -4 min | 12.7% |
| Republic Airways | 1,574 | 80.4% | 4.38% | -10 min | 8.5% |
American Airlines flew 29.6% of the 7,074 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 4.38% of its flights here against 2.82% for American Airlines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 9.7 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Other ways to fly New York to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
Flying to ORD from the New York area? Compare JFK, LGA, EWR for ORD, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 74.1%
- Feb: 80.0%
- Mar: 77.4%
- Apr: 79.8%
- May: 74.9%
- Jun: 72.1%
- Jul: 66.8%
- Aug: 72.8%
- Sep: 81.8%
- Oct: 80.6%
- Nov: 81.6%
- Dec: 75.3%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 15.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 60.2% from 217 flights
- August 2023: 71.6% from 217 flights
- September 2023: 75.6% from 225 flights
- October 2023: 82.2% from 248 flights
- November 2023: 88.9% from 236 flights
- December 2023: 90.4% from 221 flights
- January 2024: 69.1% from 209 flights
- February 2024: 88.6% from 204 flights
- March 2024: 86.2% from 217 flights
- April 2024: 84.8% from 211 flights
- May 2024: 74.2% from 248 flights
- June 2024: 67.7% from 237 flights
- July 2024: 74.3% from 244 flights
- August 2024: 68.1% from 243 flights
- September 2024: 85.4% from 267 flights
- October 2024: 89.1% from 274 flights
- November 2024: 87.6% from 210 flights
- December 2024: 76.4% from 201 flights
- January 2025: 82.1% from 171 flights
- February 2025: 74.2% from 156 flights
- March 2025: 77.4% from 133 flights
- April 2025: 71.8% from 132 flights
- May 2025: 70.3% from 160 flights
- June 2025: 68.8% from 155 flights
- July 2025: 58.1% from 156 flights
- August 2025: 81.8% from 155 flights
- September 2025: 84.0% from 165 flights
- October 2025: 65.6% from 186 flights
- November 2025: 63.9% from 176 flights
- December 2025: 56.5% from 194 flights
- January 2026: 71.5% from 148 flights
- February 2026: 73.1% from 131 flights
- March 2026: 65.9% from 183 flights
- April 2026: 80.0% from 140 flights
- May 2026: 80.1% from 177 flights
- June 2026: 79.8% from 202 flights
- July 2026: 70.6% from 217 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 72.3% against 77.0% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.7 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,266 JFK → ORD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed