Route profile
JFK→DTW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New York to Detroit, 509 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 11% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 4,570 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
JFK → DTW arrives on time 76.2% of the time; the return trip, DTW → JFK, arrives on time 79.7% of the time, a 3.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
JFK → DTW spends 37.8 minutes on the ground on a 509-mile trip: 28.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at JFK and 9.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at DTW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 98% of 5,368 comparable routes.
76.3% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 76.2% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where JFK to DTW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
JFK to DTW struggles most at 9 PM: 54.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 13.4 points behind the 68.2% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14.7 points.
JFK to DTW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 4 PM: 78.7% arrive on time, 7.1 points ahead of the 71.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8 points.
Saturday is the day JFK to DTW slips furthest against routes of similar length, 73.6% on time where they average 80.2%, 6.6 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 5.5 points.
In July, JFK to DTW runs 10.9 points below routes of similar length, 59.4% on time to 70.3%. Against all other routes the gap is 10.3 points.
JetBlue’s flights on JFK to DTW arrive on time 65.9% of the time, 8.3 points below the 74.2% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 6.3 points.
JFK to DTW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 54.8% | routes of similar length | 68.2% | −13.4 pts | 447 here, 50,590 there |
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 78.7% | routes of similar length | 71.6% | +7.1 pts | 827 here, 77,090 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 73.6% | routes of similar length | 80.2% | −6.6 pts | 599 here, 169,077 there |
| Month: July | 59.4% | routes of similar length | 70.3% | −10.9 pts | 527 here, 156,851 there |
| Airline: JetBlue | 65.9% | routes of similar length | 74.2% | −8.3 pts | 1,239 here, 17,702 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 509 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why JFK → DTW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
JFK → DTW cancelled 122 of 4,570 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 37. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 41.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 91 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 122 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
50 cancellations, 41.0% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
45 cancellations, 36.9% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
27 cancellations, 22.1% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
122 coded cancellations were recorded on JFK → DTW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
67 min late
against a median of 8 min early
JFK → DTW has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 8 min early, but the worst tenth are 75 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 4,570 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DTW after arriving from JFK.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 35% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 18% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.5% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.67% of the time and diverts 0.15% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 4,441 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 67 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 4,570 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
JFK → DTW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.9% of the time, against 54.8% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 35.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 90.8% on time from 186 flights
- 7 AM: 89.6% on time from 495 flights
- 8 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 76.2% on time from 190 flights
- 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 85.7% on time from 817 flights
- 1 PM to 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 78.7% on time from 843 flights
- 5 PM: 70.2% on time from 338 flights
- 6 PM: too few flights to score
- 7 PM: 68.2% on time from 712 flights
- 8 PM: 64.6% on time from 184 flights
- 9 PM: 54.8% on time from 473 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why JFK → DTW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for JFK → DTW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on JFK → DTW, at 39.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.9% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 54.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,733 | 76.4% | 2.65% | -12 min | 11.4% |
| Endeavor Air | 1,447 | 84.2% | 2.00% | -10 min | 6.3% |
| JetBlue | 1,288 | 65.9% | 3.65% | -2 min | 17.4% |
Delta Air Lines flew 38.8% of the 4,468 flights listed. JetBlue cancelled 3.65% of its flights here against 2.00% for Endeavor Air.
Endeavor Air arrived on time 18.3 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Other ways to fly New York to Detroit
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGA→DTW New York to Detroit | 12,495 | 80.9% | 3.07% | -11 min | 56 |
| JFK→DTW this route New York to Detroit | 4,570 | 76.2% | 2.67% | -8 min | 47 |
LGA → DTW is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 80.9% on time, against 76.2% for JFK → DTW.
Flying to DTW from the New York area? Compare JFK, LGA, EWR for DTW, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2443 Delta Air Lines | 4:30 PM | 690 | 77.2% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 73.9%
- Feb: 88.2%
- Mar: 81.1%
- Apr: 79.9%
- May: 74.5%
- Jun: 67.4%
- Jul: 59.4%
- Aug: 69.9%
- Sep: 80.0%
- Oct: 83.2%
- Nov: 85.8%
- Dec: 81.1%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 28.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 57.6% from 217 flights
- August 2023: 68.7% from 217 flights
- September 2023: 66.7% from 210 flights
- October 2023: 80.2% from 217 flights
- November 2023: 84.3% from 204 flights
- December 2023: 85.1% from 178 flights
- January 2024: 77.6% from 152 flights
- February 2024: 92.3% from 145 flights
- March 2024: 83.3% from 156 flights
- April 2024: 79.9% from 180 flights
- May 2024: 76.8% from 182 flights
- June 2024: 71.6% from 142 flights
- July 2024: 64.2% from 124 flights
- August 2024: 66.1% from 124 flights
- September 2024: 93.3% from 120 flights
- October 2024: 90.4% from 125 flights
- November 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (113)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (25)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (24)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (26)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (29)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (88)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (112)
- July 2025: 56.6% from 121 flights
- August 2025: 75.6% from 124 flights
- September 2025: 86.9% from 137 flights
- October 2025: 81.6% from 153 flights
- November 2025: 84.4% from 145 flights
- December 2025: too few flights to score (97)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (61)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (51)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (54)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (51)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (110)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (117)
- July 2026: 60.2% from 120 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.3% against 76.2% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 4,570 JFK → DTW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed