Route profile
JFK→BNA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New York to Nashville, 765 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 17% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,720 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
JFK → BNA arrives on time 77.6% of the time; the return trip, BNA → JFK, arrives on time 78.9% of the time.
JFK → BNA spends 37.3 minutes on the ground on a 765-mile trip: 27.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at JFK and 9.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at BNA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 94% of 3,357 comparable routes.
86.2% on time in a typical March, against 60.6% in July.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where JFK to BNA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
JFK to BNA struggles most at 8 PM: 57.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 10 points behind the 67.1% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.3 points.
JFK to BNA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 11 AM: 88.5% arrive on time, 6.9 points ahead of the 81.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
In July, JFK to BNA runs 8.2 points below routes of similar length, 60.6% on time to 68.8%. Against all other routes the gap is 9.1 points.
March is kinder to JFK to BNA than to routes of similar length: 86.2% on time against 78.2%, 8 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 8.3 points.
SkyWest Airlines’ flights on JFK to BNA arrive on time 74.1% of the time, 7.7 points below the 81.8% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 7.2 points.
JFK to BNA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 57.1% | routes of similar length | 67.1% | −10.0 pts | 168 here, 108,826 there |
| Hour: 11 AM departures | 88.5% | routes of similar length | 81.6% | +6.9 pts | 244 here, 135,228 there |
| Month: July | 60.6% | routes of similar length | 68.8% | −8.2 pts | 551 here, 247,479 there |
| Month: March | 86.2% | routes of similar length | 78.2% | +8.0 pts | 427 here, 180,891 there |
| Airline: SkyWest Airlines | 74.1% | routes of similar length | 81.8% | −7.7 pts | 1,185 here, 98,418 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 765 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why JFK → BNA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
JFK → BNA cancelled 193 of 5,720 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 30. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 50.3% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 59 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 193 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
97 cancellations, 50.3% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
86 cancellations, 44.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
10 cancellations, 5.2% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
193 coded cancellations were recorded on JFK → BNA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
51 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 5,720 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BNA after arriving from JFK.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 36% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 8.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.2% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 3.37% of the time and diverts 0.28% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,511 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 51 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,720 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
JFK → BNA flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 85.1% of the time, against 68.1% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 17.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 89.1% on time from 206 flights
- 7 AM: 84.4% on time from 143 flights
- 8 AM: 79.6% on time from 610 flights
- 9 AM: 82.4% on time from 552 flights
- 10 AM: 87.5% on time from 258 flights
- 11 AM: 88.5% on time from 249 flights
- 12 PM: 86.4% on time from 455 flights
- 1 PM: 69.0% on time from 346 flights
- 2 PM: 74.2% on time from 355 flights
- 3 PM: 77.0% on time from 1,230 flights
- 4 PM: 72.6% on time from 291 flights
- 5 PM: 60.3% on time from 156 flights
- 6 PM: 73.4% on time from 257 flights
- 7 PM: 71.5% on time from 252 flights
- 8 PM: 57.1% on time from 179 flights
- 9 PM: 67.6% on time from 146 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why JFK → BNA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for JFK → BNA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 2,745 | 81.9% | 2.84% | -9 min | 6.3% |
| JetBlue | 1,504 | 71.6% | 4.59% | -6 min | 11.5% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 1,223 | 74.1% | 2.94% | -5 min | 11.7% |
| Endeavor Air | 248 | 83.1% | 4.03% | -13 min | 5.5% |
Republic Airways flew 48.0% of the 5,720 flights listed. JetBlue cancelled 4.59% of its flights here against 2.84% for Republic Airways.
Endeavor Air arrived on time 11.5 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Other ways to fly New York to Nashville
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGA→BNA New York to Nashville | 12,768 | 78.7% | 3.49% | -9 min | 53 |
| JFK→BNA this route New York to Nashville | 5,720 | 77.6% | 3.37% | -8 min | 52 |
Flying to BNA from the New York area? Compare JFK, LGA, EWR for BNA, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| YX4710 Republic Airways | 3:59 PM | 972 | 76.4% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.3%
- Feb: 78.9%
- Mar: 86.2%
- Apr: 85.8%
- May: 78.1%
- Jun: 69.1%
- Jul: 60.6%
- Aug: 72.5%
- Sep: 78.4%
- Oct: 81.7%
- Nov: 81.6%
- Dec: 80.6%
July is historically the weakest month and March the strongest, a spread of 25.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 64.2% from 186 flights
- August 2023: 76.1% from 186 flights
- September 2023: 71.8% from 180 flights
- October 2023: 82.3% from 186 flights
- November 2023: 85.7% from 175 flights
- December 2023: 88.6% from 178 flights
- January 2024: 81.3% from 154 flights
- February 2024: 88.0% from 145 flights
- March 2024: 90.3% from 155 flights
- April 2024: 88.8% from 172 flights
- May 2024: 79.9% from 184 flights
- June 2024: 74.6% from 198 flights
- July 2024: 66.7% from 217 flights
- August 2024: 68.0% from 221 flights
- September 2024: 81.2% from 207 flights
- October 2024: 84.5% from 213 flights
- November 2024: 90.2% from 183 flights
- December 2024: 82.9% from 171 flights
- January 2025: 84.9% from 144 flights
- February 2025: 72.7% from 134 flights
- March 2025: 86.2% from 152 flights
- April 2025: 85.4% from 164 flights
- May 2025: 70.4% from 136 flights
- June 2025: 55.3% from 120 flights
- July 2025: 42.9% from 124 flights
- August 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- September 2025: 81.8% from 144 flights
- October 2025: 77.1% from 157 flights
- November 2025: 65.0% from 142 flights
- December 2025: 66.1% from 131 flights
- January 2026: too few flights to score (110)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (107)
- March 2026: 81.0% from 124 flights
- April 2026: too few flights to score (105)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (102)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (104)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (93)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.9% against 76.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 1.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,720 JFK → BNA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed