Route profile
BNA→JFK
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Nashville to New York, 765 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 18% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,725 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
BNA → JFK arrives on time 78.9% of the time; the return trip, JFK → BNA, arrives on time 77.6% of the time.
BNA → JFK spends 28.8 minutes on the ground on a 765-mile trip: 17.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BNA and 11.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at JFK.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 93% of 5,368 comparable routes.
77.4% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 77.8% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where BNA to JFK differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BNA to JFK struggles most at 4 PM: 55.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 13.8 points behind the 69.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 15.1 points.
BNA to JFK is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 2 PM: 84.2% arrive on time, 9.7 points ahead of the 74.5% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.6 points.
BNA to JFK holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 79.1% on time to their 74.6%, a 4.5 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 4.3 points.
May is kinder to BNA to JFK than to routes of similar length: 80.4% on time against 73.7%, 6.7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 5.2 points.
In February, BNA to JFK runs 4.8 points below routes of similar length, 77.6% on time to 82.4%.
BNA to JFK against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 55.6% | routes of similar length | 69.4% | −13.8 pts | 124 here, 127,864 there |
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 84.2% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | +9.7 pts | 360 here, 130,947 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 79.1% | routes of similar length | 74.6% | +4.5 pts | 779 here, 325,095 there |
| Month: May | 80.4% | routes of similar length | 73.7% | +6.7 pts | 419 here, 187,545 there |
| Month: February | 77.6% | routes of similar length | 82.4% | −4.8 pts | 371 here, 154,516 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 765 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why BNA → JFK flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
BNA → JFK cancelled 184 of 5,725 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 31. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 48.9% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 64 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 184 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
90 cancellations, 48.9% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
77 cancellations, 41.8% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
17 cancellations, 9.2% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
184 coded cancellations were recorded on BNA → JFK; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
51 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 5,725 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at JFK after arriving from BNA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 35% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 8.7% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.7% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 3.21% of the time and diverts 0.30% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,524 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 51 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,725 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BNA → JFK flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 86.6% of the time, against 59.8% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 26.8 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 81.6% on time from 336 flights
- 7 AM: 89.5% on time from 546 flights
- 8 AM: 87.1% on time from 356 flights
- 9 AM: 88.7% on time from 296 flights
- 10 AM: 83.7% on time from 770 flights
- 11 AM: 81.8% on time from 1,035 flights
- 12 PM: 79.9% on time from 343 flights
- 1 PM: 72.3% on time from 412 flights
- 2 PM: 84.2% on time from 365 flights
- 3 PM: 59.6% on time from 300 flights
- 4 PM: 55.6% on time from 143 flights
- 5 PM: 70.6% on time from 443 flights
- 6 PM: 67.8% on time from 188 flights
- 7 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why BNA → JFK runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BNA → JFK. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on BNA → JFK, at 32.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 86.6% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 59.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 2,748 | 81.9% | 2.66% | -6 min | 7.0% |
| JetBlue | 1,505 | 72.8% | 4.65% | -5 min | 11.7% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 1,224 | 80.5% | 2.29% | -7 min | 9.0% |
| Endeavor Air | 248 | 74.5% | 5.24% | -5 min | 11.1% |
Republic Airways flew 48.0% of the 5,725 flights listed. Endeavor Air cancelled 5.24% of its flights here against 2.29% for SkyWest Airlines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 9.1 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Other ways to fly Nashville to New York
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNA→LGA Nashville to New York | 12,776 | 78.1% | 2.91% | -6 min | 54 |
| BNA→JFK this route Nashville to New York | 5,725 | 78.9% | 3.21% | -6 min | 52 |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| YX4712 Republic Airways | 8:55 AM | 929 | 86.1% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 7.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 78.6%
- Feb: 77.6%
- Mar: 82.4%
- Apr: 84.9%
- May: 80.4%
- Jun: 67.8%
- Jul: 67.1%
- Aug: 77.4%
- Sep: 83.1%
- Oct: 84.3%
- Nov: 84.1%
- Dec: 78.8%
July is historically the weakest month and April the strongest, a spread of 17.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 68.9% from 186 flights
- August 2023: 81.5% from 186 flights
- September 2023: 77.1% from 180 flights
- October 2023: 86.7% from 188 flights
- November 2023: 88.6% from 175 flights
- December 2023: 86.9% from 177 flights
- January 2024: 79.5% from 156 flights
- February 2024: 81.7% from 145 flights
- March 2024: 85.1% from 155 flights
- April 2024: 85.7% from 172 flights
- May 2024: 82.8% from 184 flights
- June 2024: 73.4% from 198 flights
- July 2024: 69.3% from 217 flights
- August 2024: 70.9% from 221 flights
- September 2024: 83.5% from 206 flights
- October 2024: 85.0% from 213 flights
- November 2024: 88.5% from 183 flights
- December 2024: 78.8% from 171 flights
- January 2025: 83.9% from 144 flights
- February 2025: 71.0% from 134 flights
- March 2025: 82.1% from 151 flights
- April 2025: 85.9% from 163 flights
- May 2025: 73.0% from 137 flights
- June 2025: 57.7% from 120 flights
- July 2025: 60.4% from 124 flights
- August 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- September 2025: 89.4% from 144 flights
- October 2025: 80.4% from 157 flights
- November 2025: 72.7% from 144 flights
- December 2025: 67.2% from 131 flights
- January 2026: too few flights to score (110)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (107)
- March 2026: 79.3% from 125 flights
- April 2026: too few flights to score (106)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (102)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (104)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (93)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.4% against 77.8% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,725 BNA → JFK flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed