Route profile
JAX→DCA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Jacksonville to Washington, 634 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 14% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 4,628 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
JAX → DCA arrives on time 74.9% of the time; the return trip, DCA → JAX, arrives on time 77.6% of the time, a 2.6-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
JAX → DCA spends 23.7 minutes on the ground on a 634-mile trip: 16.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at JAX and 7.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where JAX to DCA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
JAX to DCA struggles most at 7 PM: 58.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 10 points behind the 68.1% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.7 points.
Tuesday is the day JAX to DCA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 75.8% on time where they average 81.7%, 5.9 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 5.8 points.
In August, JAX to DCA runs 7.4 points below routes of similar length, 69.2% on time to 76.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.3 points.
JAX to DCA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 58.1% | routes of similar length | 68.1% | −10.0 pts | 745 here, 120,283 there |
| Weekday: Tuesday | 75.8% | routes of similar length | 81.7% | −5.9 pts | 670 here, 287,540 there |
| Month: August | 69.2% | routes of similar length | 76.6% | −7.4 pts | 341 here, 174,440 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 634 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why JAX → DCA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
JAX → DCA cancelled 101 of 4,628 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 46. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 79.2% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 58 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 101 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
80 cancellations, 79.2% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
11 cancellations, 10.9% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
10 cancellations, 9.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
101 coded cancellations were recorded on JAX → DCA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
60 min late
against a median of 6 min early
JAX → DCA has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 66 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 4,628 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DCA after arriving from JAX.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 40% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 17% | High risk |
| 90 min | 10.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.3% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.18% of the time and diverts 0.32% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 4,512 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 60 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 4,628 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
JAX → DCA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 85.9% of the time, against 60.1% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 25.8 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 85.4% on time from 175 flights
- 7 AM: 86.0% on time from 918 flights
- 8 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 87.6% on time from 124 flights
- 11 AM: 84.3% on time from 575 flights
- 12 PM: 76.2% on time from 626 flights
- 1 PM: 77.1% on time from 147 flights
- 2 PM: 68.4% on time from 844 flights
- 3 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 66.1% on time from 191 flights
- 7 PM: 58.1% on time from 771 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why JAX → DCA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for JAX → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on JAX → DCA, at 43.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 85.9% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 60.1%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 2,655 | 72.7% | 1.92% | -5 min | 11.4% |
| PSA Airlines | 1,290 | 75.3% | 2.33% | -6 min | 8.9% |
| Republic Airways | 531 | 82.4% | 3.39% | -8 min | 6.8% |
American Airlines flew 59.3% of the 4,476 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 3.39% of its flights here against 1.92% for American Airlines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 9.7 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 9.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 79.5%
- Feb: 74.7%
- Mar: 75.4%
- Apr: 79.3%
- May: 70.7%
- Jun: 73.7%
- Jul: 66.7%
- Aug: 69.2%
- Sep: 77.3%
- Oct: 81.5%
- Nov: 79.2%
- Dec: 73.2%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 14.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (118)
- August 2023: 75.9% from 120 flights
- September 2023: too few flights to score (119)
- October 2023: 81.5% from 124 flights
- November 2023: too few flights to score (114)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (111)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- February 2024: 80.0% from 125 flights
- March 2024: 79.3% from 145 flights
- April 2024: 78.6% from 146 flights
- May 2024: 59.6% from 154 flights
- June 2024: 71.4% from 120 flights
- July 2024: too few flights to score (118)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (116)
- October 2024: 85.8% from 120 flights
- November 2024: 91.9% from 136 flights
- December 2024: 77.2% from 145 flights
- January 2025: 91.2% from 150 flights
- February 2025: 71.3% from 136 flights
- March 2025: 76.7% from 150 flights
- April 2025: too few flights to score (115)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (111)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (115)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (118)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- October 2025: 77.3% from 120 flights
- November 2025: too few flights to score (117)
- December 2025: 68.0% from 131 flights
- January 2026: 76.1% from 147 flights
- February 2026: 72.9% from 120 flights
- March 2026: 69.2% from 124 flights
- April 2026: too few flights to score (117)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (119)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (116)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (118)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 72.5% against 78.3% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 4,628 JAX → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed