Route profile
HOU→TPA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Houston to Tampa, 781 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 68% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,143 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
HOU → TPA arrives on time 79.9% of the time; the return trip, TPA → HOU, arrives on time 80.8% of the time.
HOU → TPA spends 17.5 minutes on the ground on a 781-mile trip: 12.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at HOU and 4.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at TPA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability on this route has fallen unusually sharply over the past year, a bigger swing than 90% of 5,368 comparable routes.
74.3% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 83.6% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), a change of 9.3 points.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where HOU to TPA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
HOU to TPA struggles most at 2 PM: 53.3% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 21.2 points behind the 74.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 21.3 points.
HOU to TPA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 80.0% arrive on time, 12.1 points ahead of the 67.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.4 points.
HOU to TPA holds up on Fridays better than routes of similar length do: 81.5% on time to their 76.0%, a 5.5 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 5.3 points.
September is kinder to HOU to TPA than to routes of similar length: 90.9% on time against 82.4%, 8.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 8.5 points.
In March, HOU to TPA runs 5.9 points below routes of similar length, 72.3% on time to 78.2%. Against all other routes the gap is 5.6 points.
HOU to TPA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 53.3% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | −21.2 pts | 169 here, 132,200 there |
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 80.0% | routes of similar length | 67.9% | +12.1 pts | 220 here, 149,890 there |
| Weekday: Friday | 81.5% | routes of similar length | 76.0% | +5.5 pts | 465 here, 335,587 there |
| Month: September | 90.9% | routes of similar length | 82.4% | +8.5 pts | 219 here, 180,685 there |
| Month: March | 72.3% | routes of similar length | 78.2% | −5.9 pts | 278 here, 183,666 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 781 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
36 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 3,143 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at TPA after arriving from HOU.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 2.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.11% of the time and diverts 0.19% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,102 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 36 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,143 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
HOU → TPA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 93.5% of the time, against 67.1% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 26.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 92.7% on time from 363 flights
- 6 AM: 95.2% on time from 332 flights
- 7 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 80.0% on time from 454 flights
- 11 AM: 86.7% on time from 292 flights
- 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 85.3% on time from 130 flights
- 2 PM: 53.3% on time from 171 flights
- 3 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 80.0% on time from 223 flights
- 7 PM: 73.8% on time from 406 flights
- 8 PM: 68.6% on time from 425 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why HOU → TPA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for HOU → TPA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on HOU → TPA, at 38.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 93.5% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 67.1%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 3,143 | 79.9% | 1.11% | -4 min | 5.4% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 5.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 86.9%
- Feb: 84.4%
- Mar: 72.3%
- Apr: 78.2%
- May: 75.6%
- Jun: 74.4%
- Jul: 72.2%
- Aug: 81.6%
- Sep: 90.9%
- Oct: 82.4%
- Nov: 86.1%
- Dec: 80.8%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 18.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.3% against 83.6% in the 12 months before — declining by 9.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,143 HOU → TPA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed