Route profile
HOU→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Houston to Chicago, 937 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 54% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,571 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
HOU → MDW arrives on time 77.5% of the time; the return trip, MDW → HOU, arrives on time 74.2% of the time, a 3.2-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
HOU → MDW spends 17.1 minutes on the ground on a 937-mile trip: 12.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at HOU and 5.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 95% of 3,357 comparable routes.
88.9% on time in a typical September, against 62.7% in July.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where HOU to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
HOU to MDW struggles most at 4 PM: 60.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 7.8 points behind the 68.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.1 points.
HOU to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 71.8% arrive on time, 5.3 points ahead of the 66.5% those routes manage at that hour.
HOU to MDW holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 81.5% on time to their 77.8%, a 3.7 points lead.
September is kinder to HOU to MDW than to routes of similar length: 88.9% on time against 82.0%, 6.9 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.5 points.
In June, HOU to MDW runs 6.8 points below routes of similar length, 64.8% on time to 71.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.9 points.
HOU to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 60.6% | routes of similar length | 68.4% | −7.8 pts | 302 here, 156,669 there |
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 71.8% | routes of similar length | 66.5% | +5.3 pts | 464 here, 146,966 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 81.5% | routes of similar length | 77.8% | +3.7 pts | 712 here, 394,837 there |
| Month: September | 88.9% | routes of similar length | 82.0% | +6.9 pts | 470 here, 225,687 there |
| Month: June | 64.8% | routes of similar length | 71.6% | −6.8 pts | 505 here, 240,594 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 937 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why HOU → MDW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
HOU → MDW cancelled 71 of 5,571 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 78. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 81.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 96 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 71 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
58 cancellations, 81.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
8 cancellations, 11.3% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
5 cancellations, 7.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
71 coded cancellations were recorded on HOU → MDW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
39 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 5,571 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from HOU.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 43% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.3% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.27% of the time and diverts 0.61% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,466 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 39 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,571 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
HOU → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.7% of the time, against 66.7% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 23.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 91.5% on time from 562 flights
- 6 AM: 92.2% on time from 405 flights
- 7 AM: 88.7% on time from 422 flights
- 8 AM: 84.9% on time from 341 flights
- 9 AM: 89.7% on time from 146 flights
- 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 81.7% on time from 332 flights
- 12 PM: 74.2% on time from 183 flights
- 1 PM: 78.2% on time from 245 flights
- 2 PM: 69.6% on time from 361 flights
- 3 PM: 68.0% on time from 300 flights
- 4 PM: 60.6% on time from 315 flights
- 5 PM: 74.0% on time from 200 flights
- 6 PM: 67.9% on time from 427 flights
- 7 PM: 71.9% on time from 221 flights
- 8 PM: 71.8% on time from 473 flights
- 9 PM: 68.9% on time from 344 flights
- 10 PM: 66.8% on time from 205 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why HOU → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for HOU → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on HOU → MDW, at 47.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.7% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 66.7%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 5,571 | 77.5% | 1.27% | -2 min | 6.2% |
Other ways to fly Houston to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAH→ORD Houston to Chicago | 17,013 | 76.9% | 1.42% | -6 min | 58 |
| HOU→MDW this route Houston to Chicago | 5,571 | 77.5% | 1.27% | -2 min | 67 |
HOU → MDW is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 77.5% on time, against 76.9% for IAH → ORD.
Flying to MDW from the Houston area? Compare HOU, IAH for MDW, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.6%
- Feb: 85.4%
- Mar: 77.4%
- Apr: 79.7%
- May: 73.8%
- Jun: 64.8%
- Jul: 62.7%
- Aug: 80.8%
- Sep: 88.9%
- Oct: 83.4%
- Nov: 84.2%
- Dec: 78.3%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 26.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 65.6% from 168 flights
- August 2023: 78.6% from 148 flights
- September 2023: 81.9% from 150 flights
- October 2023: 86.0% from 145 flights
- November 2023: 89.0% from 146 flights
- December 2023: 81.5% from 157 flights
- January 2024: 76.1% from 128 flights
- February 2024: too few flights to score (112)
- March 2024: 84.6% from 138 flights
- April 2024: 79.9% from 144 flights
- May 2024: 71.2% from 150 flights
- June 2024: 74.8% from 164 flights
- July 2024: 66.0% from 170 flights
- August 2024: 86.0% from 164 flights
- September 2024: 95.6% from 160 flights
- October 2024: 85.4% from 145 flights
- November 2024: 88.7% from 143 flights
- December 2024: 76.3% from 140 flights
- January 2025: 86.9% from 128 flights
- February 2025: too few flights to score (112)
- March 2025: 88.6% from 150 flights
- April 2025: 85.9% from 142 flights
- May 2025: 79.4% from 161 flights
- June 2025: 68.8% from 179 flights
- July 2025: 63.7% from 187 flights
- August 2025: 77.4% from 167 flights
- September 2025: 88.9% from 163 flights
- October 2025: 79.2% from 154 flights
- November 2025: 74.3% from 145 flights
- December 2025: 77.1% from 144 flights
- January 2026: 84.4% from 129 flights
- February 2026: too few flights to score (116)
- March 2026: 60.4% from 161 flights
- April 2026: 73.5% from 150 flights
- May 2026: 70.5% from 149 flights
- June 2026: 50.6% from 169 flights
- July 2026: 56.2% from 193 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 71.8% against 82.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 10.4 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,571 HOU → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed