Route profile
EWR→TPA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Newark to Tampa, 997 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 24% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,571 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
EWR → TPA arrives on time 77.6% of the time; the return trip, TPA → EWR, arrives on time 76.8% of the time.
EWR → TPA spends 31.4 minutes on the ground on a 997-mile trip: 25.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at EWR and 6.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at TPA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where EWR to TPA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
EWR to TPA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 4 PM: 76.6% arrive on time, 8.7 points ahead of the 67.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.9 points.
EWR to TPA struggles most at 10 AM: 79.4% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 3 points behind the 82.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 3.3 points.
EWR to TPA holds up on Tuesdays better than routes of similar length do: 83.7% on time to their 80.6%, a 3.1 points lead.
June is kinder to EWR to TPA than to routes of similar length: 77.8% on time against 71.5%, 6.3 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
In July, EWR to TPA runs 3.6 points below routes of similar length, 64.6% on time to 68.2%. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
EWR to TPA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 76.6% | routes of similar length | 67.9% | +8.7 pts | 610 here, 158,136 there |
| Hour: 10 AM departures | 79.4% | routes of similar length | 82.4% | −3.0 pts | 778 here, 165,583 there |
| Weekday: Tuesday | 83.7% | routes of similar length | 80.6% | +3.1 pts | 1,173 here, 410,458 there |
| Month: June | 77.8% | routes of similar length | 71.5% | +6.3 pts | 603 here, 243,792 there |
| Month: July | 64.6% | routes of similar length | 68.2% | −3.6 pts | 842 here, 330,310 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 997 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why EWR → TPA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
EWR → TPA cancelled 239 of 8,571 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 36. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 36.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 97 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 239 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
88 cancellations, 36.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
88 cancellations, 36.8% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
63 cancellations, 26.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
239 coded cancellations were recorded on EWR → TPA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
52 min late
against a median of 9 min early
EWR → TPA has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 9 min early, but the worst tenth are 61 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 8,571 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at TPA after arriving from EWR.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 35% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 8.7% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.6% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.79% of the time and diverts 0.32% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,305 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 52 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,571 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
EWR → TPA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.3% of the time, against 68.3% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 21.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.5% on time from 511 flights
- 7 AM: 90.5% on time from 802 flights
- 8 AM: 86.0% on time from 619 flights
- 9 AM: 82.3% on time from 462 flights
- 10 AM: 79.4% on time from 805 flights
- 11 AM: 80.7% on time from 420 flights
- 12 PM: 85.9% on time from 202 flights
- 1 PM: 71.9% on time from 356 flights
- 2 PM: 77.5% on time from 642 flights
- 3 PM: 72.0% on time from 852 flights
- 4 PM: 76.6% on time from 624 flights
- 5 PM: 66.4% on time from 621 flights
- 6 PM: 73.1% on time from 772 flights
- 7 PM: 61.8% on time from 180 flights
- 8 PM: 64.6% on time from 702 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why EWR → TPA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for EWR → TPA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on EWR → TPA, at 39.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.3% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 68.3%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 7,196 | 78.7% | 2.64% | -10 min | 8.1% |
| JetBlue | 1,375 | 71.7% | 3.56% | -4 min | 12.6% |
United Airlines flew 84.0% of the 8,571 flights listed.
United Airlines arrived on time 7.0 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| UA1979 United Airlines | 7:00 AM | 784 | 93.1% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 11.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.6%
- Feb: 81.1%
- Mar: 78.0%
- Apr: 79.0%
- May: 77.2%
- Jun: 77.8%
- Jul: 64.6%
- Aug: 74.5%
- Sep: 83.3%
- Oct: 83.2%
- Nov: 83.4%
- Dec: 75.0%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 18.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 52.0% from 248 flights
- August 2023: 71.5% from 242 flights
- September 2023: 78.0% from 188 flights
- October 2023: 92.0% from 212 flights
- November 2023: 90.3% from 238 flights
- December 2023: 80.5% from 256 flights
- January 2024: 78.4% from 256 flights
- February 2024: 87.8% from 240 flights
- March 2024: 76.8% from 248 flights
- April 2024: 73.0% from 258 flights
- May 2024: 80.1% from 257 flights
- June 2024: 72.2% from 210 flights
- July 2024: 67.5% from 244 flights
- August 2024: 71.4% from 219 flights
- September 2024: 86.7% from 205 flights
- October 2024: 85.9% from 228 flights
- November 2024: 82.2% from 298 flights
- December 2024: 71.4% from 297 flights
- January 2025: 76.0% from 254 flights
- February 2025: 72.9% from 236 flights
- March 2025: 74.7% from 275 flights
- April 2025: 74.1% from 226 flights
- May 2025: 60.9% from 221 flights
- June 2025: 72.0% from 198 flights
- July 2025: 69.0% from 242 flights
- August 2025: 80.0% from 240 flights
- September 2025: 84.9% from 173 flights
- October 2025: 72.1% from 219 flights
- November 2025: 77.8% from 244 flights
- December 2025: 73.6% from 232 flights
- January 2026: 78.8% from 199 flights
- February 2026: 83.0% from 195 flights
- March 2026: 82.9% from 246 flights
- April 2026: 90.2% from 235 flights
- May 2026: 89.7% from 225 flights
- June 2026: 88.8% from 206 flights
- July 2026: 72.1% from 161 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 81.3% against 74.8% in the 12 months before — improving by 6.5 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,571 EWR → TPA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed