Route profile
EWR→DCA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Newark to Washington, 199 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – May 2026
Better than 28% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 890 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
EWR → DCA arrives on time 78.4% of the time; the return trip, DCA → EWR, arrives on time 89.7% of the time, an 11.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
EWR → DCA spends 39.4 minutes on the ground on a 199-mile trip: 30.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at EWR and 8.7 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – May 2026
What stands out
Reliability on this route has fallen unusually sharply over the past year, a bigger swing than 98% of 5,368 comparable routes.
66.1% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-06 to 2026-05), against 82.0% in the 12 months before (2024-03 to 2025-05), a change of 15.9 points.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – May 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where EWR to DCA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – May 2026.
October is kinder to EWR to DCA than to routes of similar length: 89.3% on time against 82.2%, 7.1 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.3 points.
EWR to DCA against comparable routes
July 2023 – May 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month: October | 89.3% | routes of similar length | 82.2% | +7.1 pts | 149 here, 47,828 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 199 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – May 2026
38 min late
against a median of 10 min early
Percentiles over 890 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DCA after arriving from EWR.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.7% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.2% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 4.49% of the time and diverts 0.22% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 848 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 38 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 890 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
EWR → DCA flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 91.5% of the time, against 66.2% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 25.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 87.1% on time from 161 flights
- 9 AM to 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 73.2% on time from 206 flights
- 5 PM to 7 PM: too few flights to score
- 8 PM: 73.9% on time from 157 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why EWR → DCA runs late
July 2023 – May 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for EWR → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 890 | 78.4% | 4.49% | -10 min | 5.7% |
Other ways to fly New York to Washington
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGA→DCA New York to Washington | 14,238 | 76.7% | 4.07% | -9 min | 49 |
| EWR→DCA this route Newark to Washington | 890 | 78.4% | 4.49% | -10 min | 57 |
EWR → DCA is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 78.4% on time, against 76.7% for LGA → DCA.
Flying to DCA from the New York area? Compare EWR, LGA, JFK for DCA, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – May 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-06 to 2026-05), on-time arrivals averaged 66.1% against 82.0% in the 12 months before — declining by 15.9 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 890 EWR → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – May 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed