Route profile
CLE→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Cleveland to Chicago, 307 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 84% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,680 flights. How this is calculated
CLE → MDW arrives on time 83.8% of the time; the return trip, MDW → CLE, arrives on time 79.6% of the time, a 4.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
CLE → MDW spends 17.5 minutes on the ground on a 307-mile trip: 12.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at CLE and 4.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route holds up about the same all year, a steadier seasonal pattern than 98% of 3,357 comparable routes.
87.6% on time in its best month (September) against 79.5% in its worst (July).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where CLE to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
CLE to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 12 PM: 90.9% arrive on time, 10 points ahead of the 80.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.5 points.
CLE to MDW holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 83.3% on time to their 76.3%, a 7 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 8.5 points.
June is kinder to CLE to MDW than to routes of similar length: 82.5% on time against 73.9%, 8.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.8 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on CLE to MDW than on its routes of similar length: 83.8% on time here, 81.2% there, 2.6 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 6.4 points.
CLE to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 12 PM departures | 90.9% | routes of similar length | 80.9% | +10.0 pts | 231 here, 44,518 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 83.3% | routes of similar length | 76.3% | +7.0 pts | 490 here, 124,737 there |
| Month: June | 82.5% | routes of similar length | 73.9% | +8.6 pts | 315 here, 70,257 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 83.8% | routes of similar length | 81.2% | +2.6 pts | 3,636 here, 260,718 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 307 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
28 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 3,680 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from CLE.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 16% | High risk |
| 60 min | 9.4% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.5% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.03% of the time and diverts 0.16% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,636 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 28 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,680 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
CLE → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.2% of the time, against 74.8% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 15.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 90.5% on time from 521 flights
- 7 AM: 94.0% on time from 352 flights
- 8 AM: 83.3% on time from 226 flights
- 9 AM to 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 88.6% on time from 238 flights
- 12 PM: 90.9% on time from 232 flights
- 1 PM: 83.1% on time from 350 flights
- 2 PM: 85.0% on time from 167 flights
- 3 PM: 78.9% on time from 267 flights
- 4 PM: 81.8% on time from 152 flights
- 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 79.6% on time from 292 flights
- 7 PM: 73.5% on time from 344 flights
- 8 PM: 71.7% on time from 312 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why CLE → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for CLE → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on CLE → MDW, at 55.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.2% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 74.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 3,680 | 83.8% | 1.03% | -7 min | 4.6% |
Other ways to fly Cleveland to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE→ORD Cleveland to Chicago | 11,745 | 80.0% | 2.28% | -7 min | 59 |
| CLE→MDW this route Cleveland to Chicago | 3,680 | 83.8% | 1.03% | -7 min | 78 |
CLE → MDW is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 83.8% on time, against 80.0% for CLE → ORD.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 6.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 80.8%
- Feb: 86.8%
- Mar: 79.6%
- Apr: 85.6%
- May: 83.3%
- Jun: 82.5%
- Jul: 79.5%
- Aug: 82.1%
- Sep: 87.6%
- Oct: 86.4%
- Nov: 87.2%
- Dec: 85.5%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 8.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 76.8% from 130 flights
- August 2023: 78.3% from 139 flights
- September 2023: 87.1% from 132 flights
- October 2023: 87.3% from 142 flights
- November 2023: too few flights to score (116)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (116)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (97)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (100)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (99)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (103)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (101)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (103)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (106)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (94)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (85)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (72)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (70)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (86)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (86)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (87)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (108)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (109)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (108)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (94)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (84)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (89)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (71)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (71)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (87)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (86)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (87)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (109)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (115)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 83.2% against 84.2% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,680 CLE → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed