Holiday travel
Thanksgiving at IAD
Washington Dulles International Airport, Washington, VA. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against IAD’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs the Wednesday before through the Sunday after, around Thanksgiving Day (the fourth Thursday of November). In the data: Nov 22–26, 2023; Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024; Nov 26–30, 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Thanksgiving flights were better in one, about the same in one, and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 6.3 points below usual in 2025 to 6.3 points above usual in 2023.
0.29% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Thanksgiving windows, against 0.58% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Nov 22–26, 2023 | 583 | 89.5% | 83.2% | +6.3better | 0.00% | 0.58% |
| 2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024 | 752 | 85.7% | 83.3% | +2.4about the same | 0.13% | 0.58% |
| 2025Nov 26–30, 2025 | 748 | 76.9% | 83.2% | −6.3worse | 0.67% | 0.58% |
| All years3 windows | 2,083 | 83.6% | 83.2% | +0.4about the same | 0.29% | 0.58% |
Day by day
The Sunday after Thanksgiving was the worst day of the window in all three years. Over the years it ran 69.3% on time, 10.6 points below an ordinary Sunday.
The Wednesday before Thanksgiving was the best day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 87.7% on time, about level with an ordinary Wednesday.
Thanksgiving Day itself carried 29% fewer departures than an ordinary Thursday and ran 94.4% on time.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 50%, not zero.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday beforeoutside the window | about the same | 83.4% | 85.3% | −1.9about the same | 0.00% | 90.2 · 76.1 · 85.6 |
| Tuesday beforeoutside the window | 10% more | 84.0% | 87.0% | −3.0about the same | 0.00% | 80.5 · 86.6 · 84.1 |
| Wednesday before | 13% more | 87.7% | 87.1% | +0.6about the same | 0.00% | 90.7 · 88.7 · 84.2 |
| Thanksgiving Day | 29% fewer | 94.4% | 81.1% | +13.3better | 0.00% | — · — · — |
| Friday after | 8% fewer | 87.2% | 81.8% | +5.4better | 0.24% | — · 86.7 · 82.4 |
| Saturday after | 12% more | 83.0% | 85.5% | −2.5about the same | 0.92% | 92.6 · 83.4 · 74.8 |
| Sunday after | 4% more | 69.3% | 79.9% | −10.6worse | 0.22% | 76.0 · 79.5 · 54.0 |
| Monday afteroutside the window | 3% more | 84.5% | 85.3% | −0.8about the same | 0.44% | 90.8 · 85.6 · 78.5 |
| Tuesday afteroutside the window | 3% fewer | 79.4% | 87.0% | −7.6worse | 0.50% | 81.0 · 89.3 · 68.1 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at IAD were Wednesday, Nov 22, 2023 (130 departures), Sunday, Nov 26, 2023 (129 departures), Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 (168 departures), Sunday, Dec 1, 2024 (162 departures), Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025 (165 departures), and Sunday, Nov 30, 2025 (165 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 9 AM–12 PM had the highest on-time rate: 89.0%, 1.6 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 76.6%, about level with usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 12–3 PM did best (+2.5 points) and those leaving 9 PM–5 AM did worst (−5.2 points).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 83.3%, still 4.5 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 73.8%, 3.7 points below usual for that time of day.
The holiday cost flights leaving 12–3 PM the most (6.9 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 3–6 PM the least (3.7 points below).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 88.6% | 87.1% | +1.5about the same | 83.3% | 87.8% | −4.5about the same |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 89.0% | 87.4% | +1.6about the same | — | — | — |
| 12–3 PM | 88.0% | 85.5% | +2.5about the same | 80.2% | 87.1% | −6.9worse |
| 3–6 PM | 76.6% | 77.3% | −0.7about the same | 73.8% | 77.5% | −3.7about the same |
| 6–9 PM | 78.1% | 79.8% | −1.7about the same | — | — | — |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 77.9% | 83.1% | −5.2about the same | — | — | — |
IAD beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts IAD’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether IAD did better or worse than the network.
| Year | IAD on time | IAD, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Nov 22–26, 2023 | 89.5% | +6.3 | 83.7% | +1.9 |
| 2024Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2024 | 85.7% | +2.4 | 82.6% | +0.8 |
| 2025Nov 26–30, 2025 | 76.9% | −6.3 | 72.8% | −9.0 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at IAD, or the network view.