Holiday travel
Christmas to New Year’s at IAD
Washington Dulles International Airport, Washington, VA. July 2023 – July 2026. Set against IAD’s own ordinary days of the same weekday in the weeks around each holiday.
The window, year by year
The window runs December 23 through January 2, around Christmas Day (December 25). In the data: Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024; Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025; Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026. Christmas Day fell on a Monday in 2023, Wednesday in 2024, and Thursday in 2025. Three windows are in the data: enough to see whether a day repeats, not enough to call it a rule.
Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were better in one and about the same in two of the three years. The gap ran from 2.0 points below usual in 2025 to 7.4 points above usual in 2023.
0.56% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 2.16% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in all three years.
| Year | Departures | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 1,486 | 86.4% | 79.0% | +7.4better | 0.40% | 2.35% |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 1,607 | 78.8% | 80.3% | −1.5about the same | 0.44% | 2.17% |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 1,697 | 78.1% | 80.1% | −2.0about the same | 0.82% | 1.98% |
| All years3 windows | 4,790 | 80.9% | 79.8% | +1.1about the same | 0.56% | 2.16% |
Day by day
No day was the worst more than once: Wednesday, Dec 27 in 2023, Sunday, Dec 29 in 2024, and Thursday, Jan 1 in 2025.
No day was the best more than once: Sunday, Dec 31 in 2023, Monday, Dec 23 in 2024, and Friday, Jan 2 in 2025.
- Better than usual
- Worse than usual
- About the same
- What ordinary days of the same weekday had
- Lowest to highest single year
- Lighter bars: days just outside the window
Bars show the on-time arrival rate and start at 50%, not zero.
| Day | Departures against an ordinary day | On time | Usual | Gap, points | Cancelled | Each year: 2023, 2024, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19Tue, Thu, Fri · outside the window | 7% more | 74.4% | 79.5% | −5.1worse | 0.46% | 88.5 · 79.7 · 58.5 |
| Dec 20Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 10% more | 76.9% | 79.8% | −2.9about the same | 0.46% | 89.1 · 68.4 · 75.0 |
| Dec 21Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 9% more | 84.4% | 78.6% | +5.8better | 0.00% | 95.8 · 79.0 · 79.1 |
| Dec 22Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 6% more | 88.4% | 76.5% | +11.9better | 0.00% | 92.1 · 84.4 · 88.8 |
| Dec 23Sat, Mon, Tue | 12% more | 86.4% | 78.9% | +7.5better | 0.23% | 85.5 · 86.8 · 86.8 |
| Dec 24Sun, Tue, Wed | 4% more | 84.3% | 80.9% | +3.4about the same | 0.24% | 93.5 · 68.3 · 91.8 |
| Christmas Day (Dec 25)Mon, Wed, Thu | about the same | 91.8% | 82.4% | +9.4better | 0.24% | 93.2 · 91.4 · 91.0 |
| Dec 26Tue, Thu, Fri | 10% more | 74.8% | 79.5% | −4.7worse | 1.11% | 76.8 · 82.8 · 65.4 |
| Dec 27Wed, Fri, Sat | 13% more | 73.6% | 80.0% | −6.4worse | 0.67% | 70.2 · 80.3 · 70.2 |
| Dec 28Thu, Sat, Sun | 7% more | 75.9% | 78.6% | −2.7about the same | 1.37% | 79.4 · 70.7 · 77.6 |
| Dec 29Fri, Sun, Mon | 6% more | 72.7% | 76.5% | −3.8about the same | 1.56% | 89.9 · 60.6 · 68.6 |
| Dec 30Sat, Mon, Tue | 12% more | 82.0% | 78.9% | +3.1about the same | 0.23% | 90.8 · 86.8 · 70.3 |
| Dec 31Sun, Tue, Wed | 5% more | 87.1% | 80.9% | +6.2better | 0.48% | 97.6 · 78.6 · 86.4 |
| Jan 1Mon, Wed, Thu | 3% more | 75.7% | 82.4% | −6.7worse | 0.00% | 86.0 · 73.4 · 68.2 |
| Jan 2Tue, Thu, Fri | 10% more | 86.2% | 79.5% | +6.7better | 0.00% | 89.4 · 85.0 · 84.5 |
| Jan 3Wed, Fri, Sat · outside the window | 13% more | 78.3% | 80.0% | −1.7about the same | 0.89% | 93.7 · 61.5 · 80.3 |
| Jan 4Thu, Sat, Sun · outside the window | 7% more | 78.0% | 78.6% | −0.6about the same | 0.23% | 92.8 · 59.4 · 81.3 |
| Jan 5Fri, Sun, Mon · outside the window | 5% more | 79.9% | 76.5% | +3.4about the same | 2.02% | 94.3 · 68.2 · 77.0 |
A dash means fewer than 120 flights stood behind the figure, or behind the ordinary days it would be compared with: too few to print a rate, and nothing is estimated in its place. “Usual” is what ordinary days of the same weekday had at the same place in the weeks around the holiday, weighted by the flights being compared.
Which departure times held up
The busiest days at IAD were Wednesday, Dec 27, 2023 (142 departures), Tuesday, Jan 2, 2024 (141 departures), Monday, Dec 23, 2024 (152 departures), Thursday, Dec 26, 2024 (152 departures), Friday, Dec 26, 2025 (161 departures), and Monday, Dec 29, 2025 (161 departures).
Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 85.9%, 3.1 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 71.5%, 5.2 points below usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 3–6 PM did best (+3.1 points) and those leaving 9 AM–12 PM did worst (−6.2 points).
On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 86.6%, 4.3 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 3–6 PM had the lowest: 68.4%, 7.5 points below usual for that time of day.
Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 5–9 AM did best (+4.3 points) and those leaving 3–6 PM did worst (−7.5 points).
| Leaving | On time, whole window | Usual | Gap, points | On time, busiest days | Usual | Gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–9 AM | 85.9% | 82.8% | +3.1better | 86.6% | 82.3% | +4.3better |
| 9 AM–12 PM | 77.7% | 83.9% | −6.2worse | — | — | — |
| 12–3 PM | 83.6% | 82.0% | +1.6about the same | 80.4% | 81.6% | −1.2about the same |
| 3–6 PM | 77.4% | 74.3% | +3.1better | 68.4% | 75.9% | −7.5worse |
| 6–9 PM | 71.5% | 76.7% | −5.2worse | — | — | — |
| 9 PM–5 AM | 80.3% | 82.7% | −2.4about the same | — | — | — |
IAD beside every covered airport
Storms and outages move whole regions at once. This puts IAD’s year beside the year of all covered airports together, each against its own usual, to show whether IAD did better or worse than the network.
| Year | IAD on time | IAD, gap from usual | All airports on time | All airports, gap from usual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Dec 23, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | 86.4% | +7.4 | 81.0% | +2.2 |
| 2024Dec 23, 2024 – Jan 2, 2025 | 78.8% | −1.5 | 76.2% | −3.4 |
| 2025Dec 23, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026 | 78.1% | −2.0 | 71.1% | −8.5 |
For every holiday at once, see the five holidays at IAD, or the network view.