Flight profile · Republic Airways
YX4658
New York (JFK) to Raleigh–Durham (RDU) · scheduled 3:10 PM – 5:05 PM
How YX4658 performs
750 operations, August 2023 – July 2026.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · 750 operations, August 2023 – July 2026 · If YX4658 is cancelled or significantly changed, DOT’s automatic refund rule may entitle you to your money back. The refund checker walks through eligibility.
Where YX4658 is right now
A live reading, only if you ask for it. It is not part of the reliability record above.
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Against the rest of the route
| Flight or route | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YX4658 | 77.8% | 2.80% | -6 min | 6.9% | 750 |
| Republic Airways on JFK → RDU | 82.0% | 4.76% | -9 min | 6.9% | 4,330 |
| All JFK → RDU flights | 78.3% | 4.04% | -9 min | 9.0% | 9,861 |
YX4658 has cancelled 2.80% of its scheduled departures (21 of 750), against 4.04% for all JFK → RDU flights — this specific departure cancels 1.2 percentage points less often than the route as a whole. Different flight numbers on the same route can carry different aircraft, crews and schedules, so this is a fact about YX4658 specifically, not about the route it flies.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · August 2023 – July 2026
Why YX4658 runs late
Where US DOT attributed the delay minutes on this flight.
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for YX4658 on JFK → RDU. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering August 2023 – July 2026
Does a late aircraft delay this flight?
How often the plane that flies YX4658 comes in late, and what that does to the departure.
When the aircraft came in 15 or more minutes late, YX4658 pushed back an average of 34 minutes late; when it came in on time or early, an average of 3 minutes early.
Each departure is matched to the flight the same aircraft flew into JFK just before it, using the tail number in the DOT file, 709 of 731 departures in all. A departure is left out when that flight is unknown, was cancelled or diverted, or the aircraft had sat for more than 12 hours. A flight the airline cancelled never left and is not in the count, and one flown by a substitute aircraft is matched to the aircraft that flew it, not to the one first planned.
Against the network at the same turn length
| Share of departures | Inbound landed 15+ late | Left 15+ late after a late inbound | Left 15+ late after an on-time inbound |
|---|---|---|---|
| YX4658 | 19% | 57% | 5% |
| Network, same turn | 18% | 85% | 10% |
The schedule leaves a normal turn: enough time to clean and board if the aircraft is on time, little to spare if it is not.
The network row is every flight with a scheduled turn of 45 to 59 minutes. How often YX4658’s aircraft landed 15 or more minutes late is about the same as the network’s and, once the aircraft was late, how often YX4658 left 15 or more minutes late is lower than the network’s.
More: Which Flight Numbers Pay for a Late Aircraft lists the flight numbers that pass a late aircraft on.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering August 2023 – July 2026
From pushback to gate
When it leaves JFK late, does that still matter by the time it reaches RDU?
On arrival at RDU, YX4658 spends 12.3 min taxiing from touchdown to the gate — ground time a connecting passenger sits through before they can even leave the aircraft, on top of however late the flight itself ran. That is 5.3 minutes longer than a typical RDU arrival (6.9 min).
Departure delay is averaged over every pushback and arrival delay over every completed arrival, so the two counts differ by the flights that never reached RDU. Taxi-out is gate to wheels up and sits inside the scheduled block rather than on top of it; the comparison is 25,963 departures from JFK scheduled in the clock hour YX4658 most often leaves in. Taxi-in is landing to gate, compared against every arrival FlyerIntel has on file at RDU (179,931 flights), not just YX4658’s own. More on taxi time.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · August 2023 – July 2026
The hour it leaves JFK
Part of any flight’s record belongs to the clock rather than to the flight. YX4658 has one departure time, so this is what that time is worth.
On-time arrival rate. 25,963 departures from JFK are scheduled in the 3 PM–4 PM hour over the period, against 351,635 across the whole day.
YX4658 is scheduled out of JFK at 3:10 PM, in the 3 PM–4 PM bank. Departures from JFK in that hour arrive on time 73.8% of the time against 77.0% across the airport’s whole day — the slot alone is worth 3.2 points worse before anything about this particular flight is considered.
The two airport figures cover every departure from JFK to every destination, so they describe the slot rather than this journey — the like-for-like comparison against the route is above. Hours are scheduled local, and a number whose schedule moved between banks inside the period has no single hour and is not described here at all. Why the hour matters.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · August 2023 – July 2026 · Hours below 120 departures are not scored.
Other routes YX4658 has flown
A flight number is a slot in a schedule, and carriers reassign it. These are the other city pairs this number served in the analysis period.
| Route | Operated | Flights | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| LGA→STL New York to St. Louis | April 7, 2026 – May 20, 2026 | 38 | — |
| LGA→BNA New York to Nashville | November 5, 2023 – April 3, 2024 | 143 | 95.7% |
| RDU→JFK Raleigh–Durham to New York | July 1, 2023 – August 14, 2023 | 32 | — |
Because the same number has served different journeys, the statistics above describe only the route YX4658 currently operates. Blending them would produce an average of two different flights.
When it goes wrong
The average describes a usual day. This is the day that ruins a connection.
44 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 750 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering August 2023 – July 2026
Other flights on this route
Same airports, same journey, different odds of arriving on time.
| Flight | Airline | On time | Median arrival | Operations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YX4378 | Republic Airways | 88.2% | 9 min early | 698 |
| B62285 | JetBlue | 81.1% | 7 min early | 762 |
| YX4658 this flight | Republic Airways | 77.8% | 6 min early | 750 |
| YX4573 | Republic Airways | 73.4% | 5 min early | 633 |
| B61185 | JetBlue | 58.1% | 3 min late | 624 |
Every departure listed carries at least 600 operations, so the comparison is between figures that mean something. YX4658 is placed in the same ordering rather than left out of it; the rows around it are the most punctual departures on the route, not all of them, so this is a comparison and not a rank. Schedules change; confirm the departure still operates before booking around this.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 750 records of YX4658 operating JFK → RDU, published by the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. A flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after schedule. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and reported separately. Flight numbers are resolved as carrier plus number plus route, because the same number serves different routes over time.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: Most and Least Reliable Flight Numbers · The Delay You Inherit · Making Up Time in the Air
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