Route profile
TUS→SFO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tucson to San Francisco, 751 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 30% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,809 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
TUS → SFO arrives on time 73.9% of the time; the return trip, SFO → TUS, arrives on time 82.2% of the time, an 8.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
TUS → SFO spends 27.6 minutes on the ground on a 751-mile trip: 18.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TUS and 9.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at SFO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 99% of 3,357 comparable routes.
87.6% on time in a typical August, against 56.1% in May.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where TUS to SFO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TUS to SFO struggles most at 8 AM: 63.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 22.7 points behind the 86.3% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 22.3 points.
Monday is the day TUS to SFO slips furthest against routes of similar length, 67.3% on time where they average 77.1%, 9.8 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 10 points.
In April, TUS to SFO runs 19 points below routes of similar length, 60.9% on time to 79.9%. Against all other routes the gap is 19 points.
August is kinder to TUS to SFO than to routes of similar length: 87.6% on time against 76.0%, 11.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 11.1 points.
SkyWest Airlines’ flights on TUS to SFO arrive on time 73.6% of the time, 8.5 points below the 82.1% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 7.7 points.
TUS to SFO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 63.6% | routes of similar length | 86.3% | −22.7 pts | 349 here, 150,384 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 67.3% | routes of similar length | 77.1% | −9.8 pts | 416 here, 321,343 there |
| Month: April | 60.9% | routes of similar length | 79.9% | −19.0 pts | 261 here, 176,048 there |
| Month: August | 87.6% | routes of similar length | 76.0% | +11.6 pts | 194 here, 178,853 there |
| Airline: SkyWest Airlines | 73.6% | routes of similar length | 82.1% | −8.5 pts | 2,658 here, 103,720 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 751 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
58 min late
against a median of 4 min early
TUS → SFO has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth are 62 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 2,809 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SFO after arriving from TUS.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 41% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 18% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.5% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.0% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.71% of the time and diverts 0.18% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,784 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 58 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,809 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TUS → SFO flights departing 12–3 PM arrived on time 83.5% of the time, against 58.3% for 9 AM–12 PM departures, a gap of 25.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 83.8% on time from 272 flights
- 7 AM: 72.6% on time from 402 flights
- 8 AM: 63.6% on time from 351 flights
- 9 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 84.7% on time from 291 flights
- 1 PM: 83.0% on time from 595 flights
- 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 65.0% on time from 164 flights
- 4 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 55.2% on time from 121 flights
- 7 PM: 68.3% on time from 232 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why TUS → SFO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TUS → SFO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SkyWest Airlines | 2,680 | 73.6% | 0.63% | -3 min | 9.6% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| OO5583 SkyWest Airlines | 12:40 PM | 887 | 82.7% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 13.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.3%
- Feb: 69.1%
- Mar: 73.1%
- Apr: 60.9%
- May: 56.1%
- Jun: 67.4%
- Jul: 75.4%
- Aug: 87.6%
- Sep: 79.3%
- Oct: 84.7%
- Nov: 84.7%
- Dec: 71.5%
May is historically the weakest month and August the strongest, a spread of 31.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 69.3% against 80.0% in the 12 months before — declining by 10.7 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,809 TUS → SFO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed