Route profile
TPA→LAX
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tampa to Los Angeles, 2,158 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 79% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,373 flights. How this is calculated
TPA → LAX arrives on time 82.9% of the time; the return trip, LAX → TPA, arrives on time 82.9% of the time.
TPA → LAX spends 29.2 minutes on the ground on a 2,158-mile trip: 17.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TPA and 12.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at LAX.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 92% of 5,368 comparable routes.
83.9% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 83.4% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where TPA to LAX differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TPA to LAX is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 84.7% arrive on time, 15.3 points ahead of the 69.4% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 16.1 points.
TPA to LAX struggles most at 6 AM: 81.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 8.5 points behind the 89.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.8 points.
TPA to LAX holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 85.3% on time to their 79.1%, a 6.2 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 6.2 points.
August is kinder to TPA to LAX than to routes of similar length: 86.3% on time against 77.1%, 9.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.8 points.
United Airlines does better on TPA to LAX than on its routes of similar length: 85.4% on time here, 81.5% there, 3.9 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 5.5 points.
TPA to LAX against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 84.7% | routes of similar length | 69.4% | +15.3 pts | 359 here, 59,968 there |
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 81.0% | routes of similar length | 89.5% | −8.5 pts | 263 here, 68,815 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 85.3% | routes of similar length | 79.1% | +6.2 pts | 401 here, 154,561 there |
| Month: August | 86.3% | routes of similar length | 77.1% | +9.2 pts | 249 here, 97,873 there |
| Airline: United Airlines | 85.4% | routes of similar length | 81.5% | +3.9 pts | 1,121 here, 235,755 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,158 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
30 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 3,373 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at LAX after arriving from TPA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 33% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 16% | High risk |
| 60 min | 9.8% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.2% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.04% of the time and diverts 0.27% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,329 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 30 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,373 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TPA → LAX flights departing 12–3 PM arrived on time 87.1% of the time, against 77.7% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 9.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 81.0% on time from 263 flights
- 7 AM: 87.7% on time from 1,274 flights
- 8 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 89.4% on time from 222 flights
- 1 PM to 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 77.5% on time from 261 flights
- 6 PM: 84.7% on time from 366 flights
- 7 PM: 75.6% on time from 713 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why TPA → LAX runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TPA → LAX. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on TPA → LAX, at 38.0%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 12–3 PM departures arrived on time 87.1% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 77.7%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,842 | 82.8% | 1.30% | -6 min | 5.3% |
| United Airlines | 1,136 | 85.4% | 0.79% | -10 min | 5.0% |
Delta Air Lines flew 61.9% of the 2,978 flights listed.
United Airlines arrived on time 2.6 percentage points more often than Delta Air Lines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL538 Delta Air Lines | 7:00 AM | 784 | 87.4% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 80.5%
- Feb: 88.6%
- Mar: 81.6%
- Apr: 84.2%
- May: 81.6%
- Jun: 79.0%
- Jul: 76.4%
- Aug: 86.3%
- Sep: 84.9%
- Oct: 86.1%
- Nov: 88.3%
- Dec: 80.2%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 12.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (90)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (89)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (74)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (75)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (79)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (115)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (105)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (94)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (107)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (85)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (82)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (82)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (78)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (80)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (81)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (89)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (65)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (63)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (80)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (76)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (101)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (85)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (85)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (87)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (84)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (105)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (107)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (105)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (99)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (119)
- April 2026: 82.5% from 120 flights
- May 2026: too few flights to score (107)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (83)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (86)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 83.9% against 83.4% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,373 TPA → LAX flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed