Route profile
TPA→JFK
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tampa to New York, 1,005 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 19% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,143 flights. How this is calculated
TPA → JFK arrives on time 77.7% of the time; the return trip, JFK → TPA, arrives on time 74.7% of the time, a 3.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
TPA → JFK spends 27.3 minutes on the ground on a 1,005-mile trip: 16.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TPA and 10.7 minutes from touchdown to gate at JFK.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 94% of 4,023 comparable routes.
90.9% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 58.3% for 6–9 PM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where TPA to JFK differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TPA to JFK struggles most at 6 PM: 55.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 11.6 points behind the 67.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.7 points.
TPA to JFK is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 AM: 94.2% arrive on time, 3.6 points ahead of the 90.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 3.4 points.
January is kinder to TPA to JFK than to routes of similar length: 82.9% on time against 77.3%, 5.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 3.8 points.
In February, TPA to JFK runs 5 points below routes of similar length, 75.6% on time to 80.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 5.9 points.
JetBlue does better on TPA to JFK than on its routes of similar length: 75.0% on time here, 69.7% there, 5.3 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 2.8 points.
TPA to JFK against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 55.9% | routes of similar length | 67.5% | −11.6 pts | 354 here, 188,800 there |
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 94.2% | routes of similar length | 90.6% | +3.6 pts | 449 here, 220,062 there |
| Month: January | 82.9% | routes of similar length | 77.3% | +5.6 pts | 586 here, 227,533 there |
| Month: February | 75.6% | routes of similar length | 80.6% | −5.0 pts | 542 here, 220,598 there |
| Airline: JetBlue | 75.0% | routes of similar length | 69.7% | +5.3 pts | 3,226 here, 145,258 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,005 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why TPA → JFK flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
TPA → JFK cancelled 189 of 7,143 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 38. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 50.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 74 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 189 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
96 cancellations, 50.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
58 cancellations, 30.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
35 cancellations, 18.5% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
189 coded cancellations were recorded on TPA → JFK; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
57 min late
against a median of 6 min early
TPA → JFK has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 63 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 7,143 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at JFK after arriving from TPA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 37% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.2% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.65% of the time and diverts 0.31% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,932 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 57 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,143 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TPA → JFK flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.9% of the time, against 58.3% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 32.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 94.2% on time from 459 flights
- 7 AM: 90.3% on time from 1,674 flights
- 8 AM: 89.8% on time from 310 flights
- 9 AM: 85.4% on time from 295 flights
- 10 AM: 81.0% on time from 338 flights
- 11 AM: 79.2% on time from 1,102 flights
- 12 PM: 80.5% on time from 313 flights
- 1 PM: 68.6% on time from 223 flights
- 2 PM: 69.3% on time from 336 flights
- 3 PM: 69.9% on time from 312 flights
- 4 PM: 70.6% on time from 240 flights
- 5 PM: 57.4% on time from 149 flights
- 6 PM: 55.9% on time from 364 flights
- 7 PM: 60.2% on time from 929 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why TPA → JFK runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TPA → JFK. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on TPA → JFK, at 40.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.9% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 58.3%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,377 | 79.7% | 2.13% | -8 min | 8.4% |
| JetBlue | 3,351 | 75.0% | 3.43% | -5 min | 11.4% |
| Frontier Airlines | 415 | 83.3% | 0.48% | -8 min | 5.1% |
Delta Air Lines flew 47.3% of the 7,143 flights listed. JetBlue cancelled 3.43% of its flights here against 0.48% for Frontier Airlines.
Frontier Airlines arrived on time 8.3 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL2475 (7:16 AM) arrived on time 90.9% of the time, 32.6 points more often than B62826 (7:05 PM) at 58.3%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.9%
- Feb: 75.6%
- Mar: 71.8%
- Apr: 82.1%
- May: 74.0%
- Jun: 76.3%
- Jul: 67.0%
- Aug: 73.2%
- Sep: 86.5%
- Oct: 82.8%
- Nov: 86.1%
- Dec: 76.9%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 19.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 68.3% from 155 flights
- August 2023: 80.9% from 155 flights
- September 2023: 77.1% from 175 flights
- October 2023: 80.6% from 180 flights
- November 2023: 87.4% from 190 flights
- December 2023: 81.8% from 225 flights
- January 2024: 82.6% from 191 flights
- February 2024: 80.8% from 174 flights
- March 2024: 67.2% from 186 flights
- April 2024: 80.8% from 181 flights
- May 2024: 62.8% from 186 flights
- June 2024: 69.6% from 163 flights
- July 2024: 62.3% from 155 flights
- August 2024: 60.0% from 155 flights
- September 2024: 86.6% from 150 flights
- October 2024: 86.9% from 169 flights
- November 2024: 86.3% from 234 flights
- December 2024: 77.3% from 257 flights
- January 2025: 85.6% from 211 flights
- February 2025: 74.8% from 220 flights
- March 2025: 70.9% from 249 flights
- April 2025: 78.9% from 248 flights
- May 2025: 75.5% from 213 flights
- June 2025: 78.6% from 206 flights
- July 2025: 73.4% from 217 flights
- August 2025: 77.3% from 208 flights
- September 2025: 95.0% from 182 flights
- October 2025: 81.5% from 173 flights
- November 2025: 84.6% from 207 flights
- December 2025: 70.6% from 195 flights
- January 2026: 80.2% from 197 flights
- February 2026: 71.3% from 173 flights
- March 2026: 78.0% from 175 flights
- April 2026: 87.3% from 191 flights
- May 2026: 83.6% from 180 flights
- June 2026: 79.5% from 200 flights
- July 2026: 62.8% from 217 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 79.1% against 77.9% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,143 TPA → JFK flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed