Route profile
TPA→DFW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tampa to Dallas–Fort Worth, 929 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 6% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,071 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
TPA → DFW arrives on time 73.9% of the time; the return trip, DFW → TPA, arrives on time 68.4% of the time, a 5.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
TPA → DFW spends 31.6 minutes on the ground on a 929-mile trip: 16.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TPA and 15.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at DFW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 92% of 4,023 comparable routes.
87.6% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 56.4% for 6–9 PM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where TPA to DFW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TPA to DFW struggles most at 6 PM: 54.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 13.8 points behind the 67.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14.6 points.
Wednesday is the day TPA to DFW slips furthest against routes of similar length, 74.2% on time where they average 80.2%, 6 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 6.6 points.
In March, TPA to DFW runs 6.7 points below routes of similar length, 69.9% on time to 76.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 8 points.
TPA to DFW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 54.0% | routes of similar length | 67.8% | −13.8 pts | 309 here, 187,568 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 74.2% | routes of similar length | 80.2% | −6.0 pts | 1,148 here, 400,841 there |
| Month: March | 69.9% | routes of similar length | 76.6% | −6.7 pts | 804 here, 254,631 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 929 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why TPA → DFW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
TPA → DFW cancelled 269 of 9,071 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 34. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 89.2% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 38 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 269 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
240 cancellations, 89.2% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
23 cancellations, 8.6% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
6 cancellations, 2.2% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
269 coded cancellations were recorded on TPA → DFW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
67 min late
against a median of 4 min early
TPA → DFW has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth are 71 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 9,071 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DFW after arriving from TPA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 41% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 18% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.4% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.97% of the time and diverts 0.42% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,764 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 67 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,071 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TPA → DFW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.6% of the time, against 56.4% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 31.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 90.5% on time from 831 flights
- 6 AM: 83.4% on time from 200 flights
- 7 AM: 86.0% on time from 982 flights
- 8 AM: 88.5% on time from 159 flights
- 9 AM: 80.0% on time from 1,073 flights
- 10 AM: 84.6% on time from 237 flights
- 11 AM: 79.6% on time from 1,248 flights
- 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 74.0% on time from 938 flights
- 2 PM: 70.7% on time from 285 flights
- 3 PM: 66.3% on time from 468 flights
- 4 PM: 59.8% on time from 355 flights
- 5 PM: 56.4% on time from 790 flights
- 6 PM: 54.0% on time from 323 flights
- 7 PM: 57.1% on time from 788 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why TPA → DFW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TPA → DFW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on TPA → DFW, at 46.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 87.6% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 56.4%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 7,660 | 74.3% | 3.11% | -4 min | 10.7% |
| Frontier Airlines | 787 | 73.6% | 2.54% | -5 min | 11.4% |
| Spirit Airlines | 564 | 70.5% | 1.77% | -3 min | 12.1% |
American Airlines flew 85.0% of the 9,011 flights listed. American Airlines cancelled 3.11% of its flights here against 1.77% for Spirit Airlines.
American Airlines arrived on time 3.8 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA1189 American Airlines | 9:08 AM | 890 | 83.7% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 5.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 72.5%
- Feb: 83.4%
- Mar: 69.9%
- Apr: 73.6%
- May: 68.6%
- Jun: 66.0%
- Jul: 66.4%
- Aug: 74.0%
- Sep: 78.4%
- Oct: 80.4%
- Nov: 80.4%
- Dec: 79.8%
June is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 17.4 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 64.8% from 273 flights
- August 2023: 81.3% from 236 flights
- September 2023: 82.0% from 196 flights
- October 2023: 81.8% from 250 flights
- November 2023: 80.3% from 250 flights
- December 2023: 81.3% from 240 flights
- January 2024: 64.0% from 242 flights
- February 2024: 82.1% from 247 flights
- March 2024: 59.9% from 287 flights
- April 2024: 70.1% from 260 flights
- May 2024: 55.8% from 268 flights
- June 2024: 71.5% from 254 flights
- July 2024: 67.6% from 261 flights
- August 2024: 75.2% from 233 flights
- September 2024: 74.6% from 212 flights
- October 2024: 86.8% from 236 flights
- November 2024: 81.3% from 246 flights
- December 2024: 74.8% from 223 flights
- January 2025: 78.0% from 235 flights
- February 2025: 85.4% from 219 flights
- March 2025: 72.5% from 281 flights
- April 2025: 72.3% from 230 flights
- May 2025: 71.1% from 242 flights
- June 2025: 61.3% from 271 flights
- July 2025: 65.5% from 272 flights
- August 2025: 65.9% from 245 flights
- September 2025: 78.8% from 206 flights
- October 2025: 70.9% from 182 flights
- November 2025: 79.5% from 230 flights
- December 2025: 82.7% from 251 flights
- January 2026: 76.1% from 245 flights
- February 2026: 82.8% from 222 flights
- March 2026: 77.9% from 267 flights
- April 2026: 78.3% from 256 flights
- May 2026: 78.5% from 271 flights
- June 2026: 65.6% from 260 flights
- July 2026: 67.5% from 272 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.3% against 74.5% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,071 TPA → DFW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed