Route profile
SEA→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Seattle to Minneapolis, 1,399 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 95% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,340 flights. How this is calculated
SEA → MSP arrives on time 85.8% of the time; the return trip, MSP → SEA, arrives on time 84.2% of the time.
SEA → MSP spends 28.3 minutes on the ground on a 1,399-mile trip: 21.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SEA and 6.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 97% of 4,467 comparable routes.
87.7% on time on the best day (Wednesday) against 84.0% on the worst (Friday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
22 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 8,340 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from SEA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 7.3% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.2% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 1.8% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.55% of the time and diverts 0.16% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,281 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 22 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,340 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SEA → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.6% of the time, against 77.7% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 12.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM: 92.7% on time from 343 flights
- 1 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 94.5% on time from 1,142 flights
- 7 AM: 83.3% on time from 252 flights
- 8 AM: 88.5% on time from 1,423 flights
- 9 AM: 91.1% on time from 450 flights
- 10 AM: 68.1% on time from 251 flights
- 11 AM: 83.5% on time from 498 flights
- 12 PM: 88.9% on time from 597 flights
- 1 PM: 77.1% on time from 809 flights
- 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 89.3% on time from 500 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 84.6% on time from 280 flights
- 6 PM: 77.5% on time from 1,122 flights
- 7 PM to 10 PM: too few flights to score
- 11 PM: 89.9% on time from 337 flights
Why SEA → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SEA → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 5,426 | 89.2% | 0.42% | -11 min | 2.9% |
| Alaska Airlines | 2,914 | 79.3% | 0.79% | -2 min | 4.0% |
Delta Air Lines flew 65.1% of the 8,340 flights listed.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 9.9 percentage points more often than Alaska Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL943 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 95.1% of the time, 17.4 points more often than AS386 (6:45 PM) at 77.7%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 3.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 90.9%
- Feb: 89.8%
- Mar: 90.2%
- Apr: 91.2%
- May: 85.7%
- Jun: 81.8%
- Jul: 78.0%
- Aug: 78.6%
- Sep: 86.5%
- Oct: 90.6%
- Nov: 89.8%
- Dec: 87.0%
July is historically the weakest month and April the strongest, a spread of 13.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 81.4% from 253 flights
- August 2023: 83.2% from 256 flights
- September 2023: 91.3% from 242 flights
- October 2023: 89.8% from 246 flights
- November 2023: 86.7% from 211 flights
- December 2023: 90.1% from 202 flights
- January 2024: 90.6% from 180 flights
- February 2024: 90.2% from 164 flights
- March 2024: 88.7% from 205 flights
- April 2024: 87.9% from 224 flights
- May 2024: 87.6% from 241 flights
- June 2024: 78.3% from 269 flights
- July 2024: 71.8% from 286 flights
- August 2024: 75.8% from 287 flights
- September 2024: 82.6% from 264 flights
- October 2024: 91.0% from 222 flights
- November 2024: 94.7% from 187 flights
- December 2024: 90.1% from 202 flights
- January 2025: 91.6% from 179 flights
- February 2025: 91.3% from 160 flights
- March 2025: 91.9% from 198 flights
- April 2025: 95.4% from 197 flights
- May 2025: 76.9% from 217 flights
- June 2025: 83.1% from 269 flights
- July 2025: 75.4% from 295 flights
- August 2025: 77.2% from 291 flights
- September 2025: 85.9% from 264 flights
- October 2025: 91.2% from 230 flights
- November 2025: 88.5% from 202 flights
- December 2025: 81.1% from 208 flights
- January 2026: 90.4% from 168 flights
- February 2026: 88.0% from 158 flights
- March 2026: 89.9% from 199 flights
- April 2026: 90.8% from 198 flights
- May 2026: 92.4% from 225 flights
- June 2026: 84.0% from 251 flights
- July 2026: 83.4% from 290 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 86.4% against 85.5% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,340 SEA → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed