Route profile
PHL→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Philadelphia to Chicago, 668 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 25% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,117 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
PHL → MDW arrives on time 75.1% of the time; the return trip, MDW → PHL, arrives on time 75.0% of the time.
PHL → MDW spends 21.6 minutes on the ground on a 668-mile trip: 16.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHL and 5.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 98% of 5,368 comparable routes.
74.8% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 74.9% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where PHL to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
PHL to MDW struggles most at 7 PM: 52.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 15.2 points behind the 68.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 15 points.
PHL to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 2 PM: 82.2% arrive on time, 8 points ahead of the 74.2% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.6 points.
Thursday is the day PHL to MDW slips furthest against routes of similar length, 72.8% on time where they average 76.7%, 3.9 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 4 points.
In December, PHL to MDW runs 7.4 points below routes of similar length, 71.2% on time to 78.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.6 points.
PHL to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 52.8% | routes of similar length | 68.0% | −15.2 pts | 290 here, 128,611 there |
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 82.2% | routes of similar length | 74.2% | +8.0 pts | 303 here, 125,651 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 72.8% | routes of similar length | 76.7% | −3.9 pts | 762 here, 336,261 there |
| Month: December | 71.2% | routes of similar length | 78.6% | −7.4 pts | 410 here, 180,773 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 668 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why PHL → MDW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
PHL → MDW cancelled 81 of 5,117 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 63. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 60.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 104 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 81 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
49 cancellations, 60.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
26 cancellations, 32.1% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
6 cancellations, 7.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
81 coded cancellations were recorded on PHL → MDW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
55 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 5,117 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from PHL.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 42% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.2% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.8% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.58% of the time and diverts 0.47% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,012 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 55 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,117 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
PHL → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.7% of the time, against 54.5% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 34.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 88.3% on time from 279 flights
- 6 AM: 87.6% on time from 398 flights
- 7 AM: 90.1% on time from 486 flights
- 8 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 84.2% on time from 190 flights
- 11 AM: 85.0% on time from 388 flights
- 12 PM: 79.8% on time from 591 flights
- 1 PM: 78.1% on time from 281 flights
- 2 PM: 82.2% on time from 309 flights
- 3 PM: 74.6% on time from 211 flights
- 4 PM: 68.6% on time from 261 flights
- 5 PM: 59.2% on time from 307 flights
- 6 PM: 54.8% on time from 496 flights
- 7 PM: 52.8% on time from 301 flights
- 8 PM: 56.1% on time from 242 flights
- 9 PM: 72.5% on time from 145 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why PHL → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHL → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on PHL → MDW, at 47.1%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 88.7% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 54.5%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 4,448 | 76.2% | 1.28% | -3 min | 8.1% |
| Frontier Airlines | 669 | 67.7% | 3.59% | -4 min | 17.3% |
Southwest Airlines flew 86.9% of the 5,117 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 3.59% of its flights here against 1.28% for Southwest Airlines.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 8.5 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Philadelphia to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHL→ORD Philadelphia to Chicago | 14,166 | 77.2% | 2.20% | -8 min | 52 |
| PHL→MDW this route Philadelphia to Chicago | 5,117 | 75.1% | 1.58% | -3 min | 55 |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 74.1%
- Feb: 86.1%
- Mar: 79.9%
- Apr: 80.4%
- May: 70.5%
- Jun: 69.8%
- Jul: 63.5%
- Aug: 71.5%
- Sep: 83.4%
- Oct: 78.3%
- Nov: 80.0%
- Dec: 71.2%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 22.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 58.9% from 151 flights
- August 2023: 70.8% from 158 flights
- September 2023: 80.4% from 172 flights
- October 2023: 80.9% from 189 flights
- November 2023: 79.2% from 159 flights
- December 2023: 76.7% from 152 flights
- January 2024: 73.9% from 122 flights
- February 2024: too few flights to score (102)
- March 2024: 81.1% from 132 flights
- April 2024: 76.3% from 141 flights
- May 2024: 67.4% from 146 flights
- June 2024: 74.7% from 147 flights
- July 2024: 70.5% from 153 flights
- August 2024: 68.6% from 181 flights
- September 2024: 85.3% from 185 flights
- October 2024: 76.8% from 177 flights
- November 2024: 82.7% from 156 flights
- December 2024: 76.1% from 143 flights
- January 2025: too few flights to score (103)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (86)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (89)
- April 2025: 82.5% from 121 flights
- May 2025: 70.9% from 128 flights
- June 2025: 63.4% from 146 flights
- July 2025: 54.7% from 154 flights
- August 2025: 75.5% from 156 flights
- September 2025: 84.3% from 159 flights
- October 2025: 76.8% from 155 flights
- November 2025: 77.8% from 136 flights
- December 2025: 59.0% from 122 flights
- January 2026: too few flights to score (96)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (84)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (93)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (111)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (119)
- June 2026: 71.2% from 143 flights
- July 2026: 70.2% from 150 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.8% against 74.9% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,117 PHL → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed