Route profile
ONT→SMF
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Ontario to Sacramento, 390 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 97% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,150 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
ONT → SMF arrives on time 86.9% of the time; the return trip, SMF → ONT, arrives on time 85.8% of the time.
ONT → SMF spends 14.3 minutes on the ground on a 390-mile trip: 9.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at ONT and 4.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at SMF.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route holds up about the same all year, a steadier seasonal pattern than 92% of 3,357 comparable routes.
91.4% on time in its best month (September) against 80.6% in its worst (June).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where ONT to SMF differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
ONT to SMF is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 80.4% arrive on time, 11.4 points ahead of the 69.0% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.6 points.
ONT to SMF holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 87.2% on time to their 76.9%, a 10.3 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 10.4 points.
July is kinder to ONT to SMF than to routes of similar length: 84.8% on time against 70.6%, 14.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 15.1 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on ONT to SMF than on its routes of similar length: 86.8% on time here, 79.2% there, 7.6 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 9.4 points.
ONT to SMF against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 80.4% | routes of similar length | 69.0% | +11.4 pts | 372 here, 97,336 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 87.2% | routes of similar length | 76.9% | +10.3 pts | 995 here, 243,064 there |
| Month: July | 84.8% | routes of similar length | 70.6% | +14.2 pts | 673 here, 177,571 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 86.8% | routes of similar length | 79.2% | +7.6 pts | 5,978 here, 526,490 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 390 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
22 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 6,150 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SMF after arriving from ONT.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 26% | High risk |
| 45 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 7.2% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.7% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 1.8% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.34% of the time and diverts 0.05% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,126 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 22 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,150 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
ONT → SMF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 96.9% of the time, against 78.5% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 18.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 97.9% on time from 679 flights
- 7 AM: 96.1% on time from 338 flights
- 8 AM: 95.8% on time from 554 flights
- 9 AM: 96.4% on time from 303 flights
- 10 AM: 93.6% on time from 392 flights
- 11 AM: 89.1% on time from 259 flights
- 12 PM: 89.2% on time from 390 flights
- 1 PM: 82.3% on time from 408 flights
- 2 PM: 86.9% on time from 206 flights
- 3 PM: 74.0% on time from 286 flights
- 4 PM: 82.4% on time from 403 flights
- 5 PM: 77.6% on time from 382 flights
- 6 PM: 78.2% on time from 504 flights
- 7 PM: 80.4% on time from 372 flights
- 8 PM: 77.7% on time from 495 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why ONT → SMF runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for ONT → SMF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on ONT → SMF, at 76.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 96.9% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 78.5%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 6,000 | 86.8% | 0.32% | -9 min | 3.8% |
Other ways to fly Los Angeles to Sacramento
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAX→SMF Los Angeles to Sacramento | 16,587 | 86.1% | 0.27% | -9 min | 85 |
| ONT→SMF this route Ontario to Sacramento | 6,150 | 86.9% | 0.34% | -9 min | 88 |
Flying to SMF from the Los Angeles area? Compare ONT, LAX, SNA, BUR for SMF, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 86.2%
- Feb: 89.1%
- Mar: 88.1%
- Apr: 85.9%
- May: 83.6%
- Jun: 80.6%
- Jul: 84.8%
- Aug: 90.6%
- Sep: 91.4%
- Oct: 86.3%
- Nov: 89.5%
- Dec: 88.3%
June is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 10.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 85.3% from 150 flights
- August 2023: 85.9% from 162 flights
- September 2023: 88.7% from 151 flights
- October 2023: 85.5% from 160 flights
- November 2023: 91.0% from 145 flights
- December 2023: 92.6% from 149 flights
- January 2024: 81.2% from 133 flights
- February 2024: 90.0% from 121 flights
- March 2024: 84.9% from 152 flights
- April 2024: 86.8% from 151 flights
- May 2024: 86.9% from 153 flights
- June 2024: 82.4% from 142 flights
- July 2024: 82.3% from 165 flights
- August 2024: 92.5% from 188 flights
- September 2024: 91.8% from 184 flights
- October 2024: 91.2% from 193 flights
- November 2024: 87.9% from 174 flights
- December 2024: 87.4% from 167 flights
- January 2025: 89.6% from 156 flights
- February 2025: 92.2% from 141 flights
- March 2025: 91.0% from 179 flights
- April 2025: 87.9% from 182 flights
- May 2025: 84.8% from 184 flights
- June 2025: 82.9% from 176 flights
- July 2025: 86.5% from 178 flights
- August 2025: 92.7% from 178 flights
- September 2025: 93.2% from 177 flights
- October 2025: 81.8% from 181 flights
- November 2025: 89.8% from 178 flights
- December 2025: 85.5% from 179 flights
- January 2026: 87.1% from 155 flights
- February 2026: 85.5% from 152 flights
- March 2026: 88.0% from 183 flights
- April 2026: 83.1% from 184 flights
- May 2026: 79.6% from 187 flights
- June 2026: 76.8% from 177 flights
- July 2026: 85.1% from 183 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 85.6% against 88.8% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,150 ONT → SMF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed