Route profile
MSY→JFK
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New Orleans to New York, 1,182 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 10% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,600 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSY → JFK arrives on time 75.9% of the time; the return trip, JFK → MSY, arrives on time 79.3% of the time, a 3.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSY → JFK spends 24.9 minutes on the ground on a 1,182-mile trip: 13.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSY and 11.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at JFK.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 92% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 10 min early, but the worst tenth run 73 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSY to JFK differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSY to JFK struggles most at 6 PM: 51.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 16.4 points behind the 67.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 17.5 points.
MSY to JFK is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 79.2% arrive on time, 13.7 points ahead of the 65.5% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.4 points.
In May, MSY to JFK runs 6.3 points below routes of similar length, 67.8% on time to 74.1%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
MSY to JFK against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 51.1% | routes of similar length | 67.5% | −16.4 pts | 141 here, 138,826 there |
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 79.2% | routes of similar length | 65.5% | +13.7 pts | 1,076 here, 129,763 there |
| Month: May | 67.8% | routes of similar length | 74.1% | −6.3 pts | 314 here, 176,444 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,182 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSY → JFK flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSY → JFK cancelled 110 of 3,600 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 33. The reason filed most often was the airline, 41.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 78 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 110 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
46 cancellations, 41.8% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
43 cancellations, 39.1% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
21 cancellations, 19.1% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
110 coded cancellations were recorded on MSY → JFK; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
63 min late
against a median of 10 min early
MSY → JFK has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 10 min early, but the worst tenth are 73 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 3,600 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at JFK after arriving from MSY.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 17% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.5% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 3.06% of the time and diverts 0.36% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,477 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 63 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,600 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSY → JFK flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 77.9% of the time, against 55.6% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 22.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 8 AM: too few flights to score
- 9 AM: 78.9% on time from 166 flights
- 10 AM: 75.6% on time from 400 flights
- 11 AM: 78.6% on time from 1,146 flights
- 12 PM: 68.7% on time from 260 flights
- 1 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 51.1% on time from 150 flights
- 7 PM: 79.2% on time from 1,116 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSY → JFK runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSY → JFK. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MSY → JFK, at 44.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 9 AM–12 PM departures arrived on time 77.9% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 55.6%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 2,239 | 80.3% | 3.26% | -13 min | 8.1% |
| JetBlue | 1,351 | 68.8% | 2.74% | -4 min | 15.0% |
Delta Air Lines flew 62.4% of the 3,590 flights listed.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 11.5 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| B6176 JetBlue | 10:59 AM | 785 | 67.4% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 79.2%
- Feb: 77.7%
- Mar: 79.7%
- Apr: 82.8%
- May: 67.8%
- Jun: 67.8%
- Jul: 64.1%
- Aug: 69.6%
- Sep: 79.6%
- Oct: 83.1%
- Nov: 82.8%
- Dec: 77.3%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 19.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (98)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (109)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (88)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (89)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- May 2024: 59.3% from 124 flights
- June 2024: too few flights to score (102)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (106)
- October 2024: 86.0% from 121 flights
- November 2024: too few flights to score (116)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (118)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (88)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (104)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (92)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (82)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (108)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (105)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (84)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (99)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (93)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (89)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (92)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (89)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (92)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 79.0% against 74.5% in the 12 months before — improving by 4.5 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,600 MSY → JFK flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed