Route profile
MIA→SFO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Miami to San Francisco, 2,585 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 14% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,020 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MIA → SFO arrives on time 69.3% of the time; the return trip, SFO → MIA, arrives on time 80.1% of the time, a 10.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MIA → SFO spends 32.4 minutes on the ground on a 2,585-mile trip: 23.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MIA and 9.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at SFO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 91% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 2 min early, but the worst tenth run 72 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MIA to SFO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MIA to SFO struggles most at 8 PM: 53.7% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 16.7 points behind the 70.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.7 points.
Sunday is the day MIA to SFO slips furthest against routes of similar length, 64.2% on time where they average 76.1%, 11.9 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 10.6 points.
In May, MIA to SFO runs 15.4 points below routes of similar length, 62.6% on time to 78.0%. Against all other routes the gap is 12.7 points.
American Airlines’ flights on MIA to SFO arrive on time 67.2% of the time, 11.4 points below the 78.6% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 7.9 points.
MIA to SFO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 53.7% | routes of similar length | 70.4% | −16.7 pts | 285 here, 28,812 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 64.2% | routes of similar length | 76.1% | −11.9 pts | 712 here, 122,805 there |
| Month: May | 62.6% | routes of similar length | 78.0% | −15.4 pts | 436 here, 73,981 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 67.2% | routes of similar length | 78.6% | −11.4 pts | 3,275 here, 149,754 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,585 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
70 min late
against a median of 2 min early
MIA → SFO has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 2 min early, but the worst tenth are 72 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 5,020 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SFO after arriving from MIA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 46% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 30% | Likely to miss |
| 60 min | 21% | High risk |
| 90 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.9% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.78% of the time and diverts 0.40% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 4,961 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 70 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,020 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MIA → SFO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 85.9% of the time, against 57.1% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 28.8 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 86.5% on time from 678 flights
- 8 AM: 84.6% on time from 1,089 flights
- 9 AM to 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 67.5% on time from 123 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 59.8% on time from 869 flights
- 6 PM: 54.6% on time from 801 flights
- 7 PM: 60.4% on time from 895 flights
- 8 PM: 53.7% on time from 287 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MIA → SFO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MIA → SFO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 3,300 | 67.2% | 0.52% | -1 min | 12.9% |
| United Airlines | 1,720 | 73.3% | 1.28% | -4 min | 9.8% |
American Airlines flew 65.7% of the 5,020 flights listed.
United Airlines arrived on time 6.1 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA2426 American Airlines | 7:30 PM | 625 | 58.8% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 13.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 72.8%
- Feb: 68.3%
- Mar: 67.3%
- Apr: 66.8%
- May: 62.6%
- Jun: 63.3%
- Jul: 63.3%
- Aug: 70.1%
- Sep: 70.9%
- Oct: 79.9%
- Nov: 77.6%
- Dec: 72.6%
May is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 17.3 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 66.1% from 124 flights
- August 2023: 75.6% from 124 flights
- September 2023: too few flights to score (96)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (108)
- November 2023: 79.2% from 120 flights
- December 2023: 75.4% from 130 flights
- January 2024: 63.2% from 154 flights
- February 2024: 50.4% from 130 flights
- March 2024: 41.5% from 124 flights
- April 2024: 53.3% from 120 flights
- May 2024: 53.8% from 120 flights
- June 2024: too few flights to score (94)
- July 2024: 61.5% from 120 flights
- August 2024: 63.7% from 124 flights
- September 2024: 70.6% from 120 flights
- October 2024: 76.6% from 129 flights
- November 2024: 72.3% from 149 flights
- December 2024: 65.5% from 146 flights
- January 2025: 80.3% from 147 flights
- February 2025: 75.8% from 132 flights
- March 2025: 69.5% from 153 flights
- April 2025: 87.8% from 150 flights
- May 2025: 76.5% from 155 flights
- June 2025: 76.0% from 150 flights
- July 2025: 71.2% from 155 flights
- August 2025: 70.9% from 142 flights
- September 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- October 2025: 82.0% from 122 flights
- November 2025: 81.8% from 143 flights
- December 2025: 77.4% from 137 flights
- January 2026: 74.1% from 153 flights
- February 2026: 77.4% from 137 flights
- March 2026: 86.1% from 154 flights
- April 2026: 57.0% from 153 flights
- May 2026: 56.1% from 164 flights
- June 2026: 56.4% from 174 flights
- July 2026: 55.7% from 176 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 70.0% against 74.0% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.0 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,020 MIA → SFO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed