Route profile
MDW→TPA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Tampa, 997 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 38% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,360 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MDW → TPA arrives on time 76.9% of the time; the return trip, TPA → MDW, arrives on time 77.3% of the time.
MDW → TPA spends 19.5 minutes on the ground on a 997-mile trip: 14.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 5.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at TPA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every airline on this route performs about the same, a narrower carrier gap than 100% of 2,692 comparable routes.
Frontier Airlines (76.9% on time) and Southwest Airlines (76.9%) are close together here.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to TPA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to TPA struggles most at 9 PM: 47.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 18 points behind the 65.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 21.7 points.
MDW to TPA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 76.2% arrive on time, 10 points ahead of the 66.2% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.4 points.
February is kinder to MDW to TPA than to routes of similar length: 87.2% on time against 80.6%, 6.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 5.8 points.
In July, MDW to TPA runs 5.2 points below routes of similar length, 63.0% on time to 68.2%. Against all other routes the gap is 6.7 points.
MDW to TPA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 47.8% | routes of similar length | 65.8% | −18.0 pts | 201 here, 85,804 there |
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 76.2% | routes of similar length | 66.2% | +10.0 pts | 239 here, 194,408 there |
| Month: February | 87.2% | routes of similar length | 80.6% | +6.6 pts | 368 here, 225,111 there |
| Month: July | 63.0% | routes of similar length | 68.2% | −5.2 pts | 606 here, 330,546 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 997 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MDW → TPA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MDW → TPA cancelled 96 of 5,360 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 56. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 77.1% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 72 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 96 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
74 cancellations, 77.1% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
12 cancellations, 12.5% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
10 cancellations, 10.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
96 coded cancellations were recorded on MDW → TPA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
45 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 5,360 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at TPA after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 42% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.1% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.79% of the time and diverts 0.28% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,249 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 45 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,360 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → TPA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.0% of the time, against 48.3% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 42.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 94.7% on time from 532 flights
- 6 AM: 95.9% on time from 370 flights
- 7 AM: 86.6% on time from 487 flights
- 8 AM: 86.3% on time from 327 flights
- 9 AM: 85.3% on time from 360 flights
- 10 AM: 81.1% on time from 128 flights
- 11 AM: 79.0% on time from 204 flights
- 12 PM: 77.2% on time from 150 flights
- 1 PM: 76.3% on time from 388 flights
- 2 PM: 71.6% on time from 384 flights
- 3 PM: 72.2% on time from 164 flights
- 4 PM: 69.7% on time from 258 flights
- 5 PM: 62.8% on time from 435 flights
- 6 PM: 63.1% on time from 386 flights
- 7 PM: 76.2% on time from 244 flights
- 8 PM: 59.9% on time from 329 flights
- 9 PM: 47.8% on time from 208 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MDW → TPA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → TPA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → TPA, at 46.0%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.0% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 48.3%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 4,757 | 76.9% | 1.62% | -3 min | 6.9% |
| Frontier Airlines | 603 | 76.9% | 3.15% | -8 min | 11.9% |
Southwest Airlines flew 88.8% of the 5,360 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 3.15% of its flights here against 1.62% for Southwest Airlines.
Carriers on this route performed within a couple of percentage points of each other.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 76.3%
- Feb: 87.2%
- Mar: 73.9%
- Apr: 81.5%
- May: 70.1%
- Jun: 70.9%
- Jul: 63.0%
- Aug: 75.1%
- Sep: 84.8%
- Oct: 85.0%
- Nov: 86.1%
- Dec: 78.9%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 24.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 54.7% from 163 flights
- August 2023: 71.5% from 138 flights
- September 2023: 84.8% from 125 flights
- October 2023: 82.4% from 176 flights
- November 2023: 85.3% from 156 flights
- December 2023: 81.0% from 153 flights
- January 2024: 68.3% from 133 flights
- February 2024: 87.3% from 126 flights
- March 2024: 71.2% from 215 flights
- April 2024: 83.0% from 173 flights
- May 2024: 59.9% from 160 flights
- June 2024: 75.2% from 155 flights
- July 2024: 67.3% from 157 flights
- August 2024: 73.9% from 124 flights
- September 2024: too few flights to score (112)
- October 2024: 91.3% from 126 flights
- November 2024: 90.1% from 142 flights
- December 2024: 83.9% from 157 flights
- January 2025: 80.7% from 145 flights
- February 2025: 85.9% from 130 flights
- March 2025: 79.8% from 200 flights
- April 2025: 79.2% from 157 flights
- May 2025: 75.2% from 137 flights
- June 2025: 67.1% from 156 flights
- July 2025: 61.6% from 163 flights
- August 2025: 79.8% from 129 flights
- September 2025: too few flights to score (111)
- October 2025: 82.8% from 123 flights
- November 2025: 82.5% from 133 flights
- December 2025: 71.1% from 135 flights
- January 2026: 78.9% from 128 flights
- February 2026: too few flights to score (115)
- March 2026: 70.5% from 182 flights
- April 2026: 82.2% from 132 flights
- May 2026: 77.4% from 124 flights
- June 2026: 70.2% from 132 flights
- July 2026: 69.9% from 137 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.9% against 78.9% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,360 MDW → TPA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed